Global Risk Indexes (06-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Trump's Gaza Takeover Sparks Global Crisis, Iran Mobilizes Against U.S. Sanctions, and West Bank Tensions Reach a Breaking Point

The Middle East is experiencing an unprecedented period of geopolitical volatility, with high-stakes developments shaping the region's future. President Donald Trump's controversial Gaza proposal'suggesting a U.S. takeover and forced resettlement of Palestinians'has triggered a diplomatic crisis, with Arab and global leaders rejecting it as a violation of international law. Iran, facing the return of Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign, is rallying OPEC members against U.S. sanctions while unveiling a new drone and helicopter carrier warship to expand its military reach. Meanwhile, tensions in the West Bank are escalating rapidly, with Israeli forces intensifying operations in Jenin, pushing the region closer to a Third Intifada. Turkey is strengthening its strategic control over Syria, reducing Iranian influence, while major economic and energy realignments continue across the region. These events signal a period of high instability, with growing risks of regional conflict and economic shocks.

Trump's Gaza Takeover Proposal: A Diplomatic and Strategic Earthquake

Trump's proposal to take control of Gaza and forcibly resettle its population has provoked a fierce international backlash. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and other key Arab states have strongly rejected any displacement of Palestinians, calling the plan a dangerous escalation. The European Union and the United Nations have warned that such a move could spark new conflicts, while Russia and China have condemned the U.S. for violating international norms. Palestinian factions'including both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority'have united in rejecting the plan, seeing it as a move toward permanent occupation. The crisis has significant implications: it threatens to sever U.S. ties with its Arab allies, strengthen Iran's regional influence as the 'defender of Palestinian rights,' and embolden militant groups to escalate resistance operations. If pursued, this policy could trigger widespread protests, diplomatic isolation for Washington, and potential military confrontations.

Iran Mobilizes Against U.S. Sanctions: Energy Warfare on the Horizon?

As Trump reinstates his aggressive sanctions policy, Iran is launching a counteroffensive on multiple fronts. Tehran is pushing OPEC members to resist U.S. pressure, warning that unilateral American actions could destabilize global energy markets. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has called for coordinated resistance, arguing that U.S. economic warfare must be countered collectively. Iran has also unveiled a new warship designed to carry drones and helicopters, signaling an expanded military presence beyond the Gulf. If U.S. sanctions begin to take effect, Iran may escalate its response, potentially through covert attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure, increased proxy warfare in Iraq and Syria, or disruptions in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of a new energy crisis is growing, with global markets reacting nervously to the intensifying U.S.-Iran standoff.

West Bank: A New Intifada in the Making?

Israeli military operations in the West Bank have reached a new level of intensity, with Jenin and other areas experiencing heavy raids, airstrikes, and mass arrests. The destruction of Palestinian infrastructure and civilian displacement has led to rising anger, with many comparing the situation to the early days of the Second Intifada. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have called for increased resistance, while Iran-backed groups in Lebanon and Syria may seek to escalate tensions further. If the Palestinian Authority loses complete control over security, a full-scale uprising could erupt, destabilizing not just Israel but also neighboring Jordan, which has a large Palestinian population. This escalation could also undermine Israel's efforts to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh faces domestic and regional pressure to take a stronger stance on Palestinian rights.

Turkey's Strategic Expansion in Syria: The New Power Broker

Turkey has consolidated its influence in Syria, finalizing economic and security agreements with the transitional government in Damascus. This marks a significant shift in regional power dynamics, as Ankara effectively sidelines Iran, which had long been a key player in Syria through its support for Assad's forces. Turkey's growing presence also signals potential military operations against Kurdish forces, which could create tensions with the U.S. and European allies. Meanwhile, Russia, which has historically supported the Syrian government, may find itself in a delicate balancing act as Ankara expands its role. Turkey's increasing dominance in Syria could reshape the Levant's security landscape, strengthening its regional position while pushing Iran further into isolation.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is entering an extremely volatile period, with multiple crisis points converging. Trump's Gaza proposal could set off a prolonged diplomatic and security crisis, while Iran's mobilization against U.S. sanctions raises the risk of economic warfare and military escalation. The West Bank is rapidly destabilizing, and a new Palestinian uprising appears increasingly likely. Turkey's dominance in Syria is shifting the regional balance of power, while Gulf economic strategies are influencing global energy markets. These developments suggest that the coming months will be defined by heightened conflict, realignments in power, and unpredictable economic consequences.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(06-02-2025)

The MENA region is facing heightened instability as multiple crises unfold simultaneously. Trump's Gaza takeover proposal has ignited widespread backlash, with Arab states, European powers, and global institutions warning of severe diplomatic and security consequences. Meanwhile, Iran is escalating its response to renewed U.S. sanctions, calling for OPEC unity against Washington's economic pressure while unveiling new military capabilities to project power beyond the Gulf. The West Bank is on the brink of an uprising, with Israeli operations in Jenin fueling anger and increasing the risk of full-scale conflict. Turkey has further cemented its influence in post-Assad Syria, signaling a realignment of power in the Levant. Economically, the Gulf states are leveraging energy diplomacy to counteract market disruptions, while Syria and Lebanon seek strategic partnerships to support reconstruction. With intensifying tensions in multiple arenas'military, diplomatic, and economic'the region is entering a dangerous phase where miscalculations could trigger broader conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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