Global Risk Indexes (04-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 96 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 (-1 ▼)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Ceasefire Uncertainty, West Bank Eruption, and Turkey's Geopolitical Gambit in Syria Define MENA's Fragile Stability

The Middle East remains on edge as diplomatic negotiations, military escalations, and economic realignments shape regional dynamics. The Gaza ceasefire remains at risk, the West Bank teeters on the brink of widespread violence, and Syria's new leadership is positioning itself within shifting power blocs. Meanwhile, the Gulf states navigate economic and diplomatic challenges, and maritime security remains a major concern.

Gaza Ceasefire Under Pressure: Israel is preparing to send a high-level delegation to Qatar to discuss the next phase of the ceasefire agreement. However, trust remains low, with both Israel and Hamas accusing each other of violating the truce. The phased release of hostages continues, but political divisions within Israel and Hamas threaten to derail negotiations. The outcome of this next round of talks will determine whether Gaza moves toward stability or spirals back into conflict.

West Bank Uprising Risk Increases: Israeli forces killed a gunman near Tayasir as violence intensifies across the occupied territories. The situation in Jenin and Nablus remains volatile, with growing calls for a broader Palestinian resistance. The possibility of a full-scale intifada looms large, particularly as Israeli settlement expansion and military operations continue. The collapse of Palestinian Authority control in certain areas raises the risk of a power vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups.

Turkey's Strategic Expansion in Syria: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo'an are discussing a major defense pact that could reshape Syria's security landscape. The proposed agreement includes the establishment of Turkish airbases in central Syria and Turkish-led training programs for Syria's new military forces. This would mark a dramatic shift, with Turkey replacing Iran as Syria's primary regional partner. However, this move could trigger friction with Russia, which seeks to maintain its influence through its bases in Tartous and Latakia. Meanwhile, Ankara's ongoing military operations against Kurdish groups in northern Syria remain a key point of contention with the U.S.

Trump-Putin Summit and Gulf Mediation: Russia is exploring Saudi Arabia and the UAE as possible venues for a Trump-Putin summit, underscoring the Gulf's increasing diplomatic weight in global affairs. The two Gulf states have managed to maintain neutrality in the Ukraine war, balancing ties with both Moscow and Washington. However, hosting such a summit could come with risks, particularly as the West continues to pressure regional players to take a firmer stance against Russia.

Maritime Security and Economic Risks: The first commercial tanker attacked by the Houthis last year, the Chrysalis, has successfully navigated the Red Sea for the first time since the ceasefire. This signals a cautious reopening of trade routes, but persistent threats from the Houthis continue to undermine full confidence in Red Sea shipping. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's non-oil business sector posted its strongest growth in over a decade, signaling economic resilience despite geopolitical headwinds. However, Turkey's inflation surge'driven by healthcare cost increases and currency depreciation'poses risks to regional economic stability.

Strategic Implications: The region is at a critical juncture. The Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Israeli military actions in the West Bank, and Turkey's expansion in Syria will define the next phase of regional stability or escalation. Meanwhile, the Gulf's diplomatic positioning in global affairs continues to grow, and maritime security remains a key economic challenge. The coming days will test whether diplomacy or conflict will shape the trajectory of the MENA region.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(04-02-2025)

The MENA region remains highly volatile as ceasefire negotiations in Gaza face political and security challenges, the West Bank moves closer to a full-scale uprising, and Syria undergoes a major geopolitical shift with Turkey's growing influence. Meanwhile, maritime threats in the Red Sea persist, and the Trump-Putin summit discussions signal new global realignments with implications for regional actors.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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