Global Risk Indexes (05-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 97 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Trump's Gaza Takeover Plan, Maximum Pressure on Iran, and West Bank Eruption: MENA Reaches a Critical Inflection Point

The Middle East is undergoing a seismic geopolitical transformation. Trump's shocking proposal to take control of Gaza and resettle its Palestinian population has triggered a massive backlash across the Arab world, with Saudi Arabia and other key players outright rejecting any displacement. The West Bank is on the verge of a full-scale uprising, as Israeli military operations turn Jenin into a 'ghost town.' Meanwhile, Trump's decision to reimpose 'maximum pressure' on Iran, aiming to cut its oil exports to zero, risks triggering a dangerous escalation in the Gulf. At the same time, Turkey is cementing its influence in Syria, sidelining Iran, while Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, continue to expand their economic and geopolitical reach. These developments collectively signal a period of unprecedented uncertainty for MENA.

Trump's Radical Gaza Takeover Proposal: A Diplomatic Firestorm

Trump's declaration that the U.S. will 'own' and develop Gaza has been met with near-universal condemnation. His proposal to forcibly resettle Palestinians outside Gaza has raised fears of a modern-day Nakba, as regional leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have categorically rejected any displacement. If pursued, this policy could have disastrous consequences: it risks permanently destroying U.S. credibility in the Middle East, undermining U.S.-brokered peace efforts, and fueling regional instability. Moreover, it provides Iran with a major propaganda victory, allowing Tehran to position itself as the defender of Palestinian rights.

West Bank on the Brink: A New Intifada?

The situation in the West Bank is rapidly deteriorating. Israeli military operations in Jenin have displaced thousands, and reports indicate that large sections of the refugee camp have been demolished. Israeli forces are justifying their actions by claiming they are dismantling 'Iranian-backed militant networks,' but the scale of destruction suggests a wider campaign aimed at reasserting long-term military control. With the Palestinian Authority losing legitimacy, and Hamas calling for 'escalation in the resistance,' the prospect of a new intifada is growing. If the violence continues to spread, it could ignite broader unrest in Jordan and the wider Arab world.

Trump's Maximum Pressure on Iran: Risking a New Regional Crisis

The reimposition of 'maximum pressure' on Iran, including an explicit goal of cutting its oil exports to zero, marks a return to direct economic warfare. Iran is likely to respond by increasing asymmetric attacks, whether through its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen or through cyber warfare. The most immediate concern, however, is how this will impact global energy markets. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while capable of increasing production, may be reluctant to fully compensate for lost Iranian supply, given recent diplomatic overtures between Riyadh and Tehran. Additionally, if Iran accelerates its nuclear program in retaliation, the likelihood of an Israeli or U.S. preemptive strike grows exponentially.

Turkey's Strategic Expansion in Syria: The End of Iranian Influence?

Turkey's deepening engagement with Syria under the transitional government of Ahmed al-Sharaa signals a major shift in regional power dynamics. Ankara's offer to provide military training and establish airbases inside Syria could permanently displace Iran's influence. However, this also risks increasing tensions with Russia, which has long sought to maintain control over Syrian military infrastructure. If Turkey succeeds in securing long-term military agreements with Damascus, it could dramatically reshape the Syrian conflict, potentially leading to a realignment of Kurdish forces and even a confrontation with U.S.-backed groups in northeastern Syria.

Strategic Outlook

The coming weeks will determine whether MENA moves toward a diplomatic resolution of its conflicts or spirals into further instability. Key developments to watch include the global reaction to Trump's Gaza proposal, Iran's next move in response to sanctions, and whether West Bank unrest will escalate into a full-scale uprising. Additionally, Turkey's deepening role in Syria could lead to friction with Russia, while the Gulf states' growing economic ambitions will continue shaping regional power dynamics.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(05-02-2025)

The MENA region is facing extreme volatility as Trump's Gaza takeover proposal sparks a geopolitical firestorm, Israeli military actions escalate in the West Bank, and Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign on Iran reintroduces high-stakes confrontation. Syria's transition is accelerating under Turkish influence, and the Gulf states continue their strategic economic and diplomatic maneuvering. Amid shifting alliances and ongoing conflicts, the region is at an inflection point where diplomacy, economic competition, and military escalations will determine its trajectory.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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