Global Risk Indexes (05-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 97 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Markus Schmidt, Europe region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Markus Schmidt

Analyzing Today, Anticipating Tomorrow

Europe at a Breaking Point: Russia's Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade War, and Political Polarization Threaten Continental Stability

Russia's hybrid warfare against Europe is accelerating, with Moscow using disinformation, cyberattacks, and cultural influence campaigns to deepen divisions within the EU. The Kremlin's revival of the Soviet-era 'Intervision Song Contest' is part of a broader effort to assert Russia's cultural and ideological narrative against what it perceives as Western decadence. Simultaneously, cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states highlight an escalating digital conflict that the EU has yet to fully counter. Europe must rapidly scale up its counter-hybrid capabilities, investing in both offensive and defensive cyber operations.

The U.S.-EU trade war is approaching a critical juncture, with President Donald Trump doubling down on threats to impose tariffs on European goods. The EU's attempts at diplomatic engagement have been met with resistance from Washington, while divisions within the bloc complicate a unified response. The looming transatlantic economic conflict threatens European industries, particularly automotive, agriculture, and technology. If Trump follows through with punitive measures, the EU must be prepared to retaliate strategically while strengthening trade alliances with alternative partners, such as Japan, India, and Latin America.

Germany's political landscape is becoming increasingly volatile, as the conservative CDU's alliance with the far-right AfD on migration policy fractures the country's political consensus. The backlash against CDU leader Friedrich Merz has led to a 2% drop in support for the party, reflecting the electorate's growing unease with any normalization of far-right cooperation. This polarization could lead to a weakened German government post-election, reducing Berlin's ability to lead EU-wide initiatives on security, economic policy, and migration reform.

Georgia's political crisis is deepening, with the ruling Georgian Dream party pushing authoritarian measures to suppress protests over its decision to halt EU accession talks until 2028. The government's crackdown on opposition figures and civil society groups signals a broader shift toward Russian-aligned authoritarianism. Europe must reassess its engagement with Tbilisi, increasing diplomatic and economic pressure to prevent Georgia from becoming another Belarus-style proxy for Moscow.

Sweden is reeling from its deadliest mass shooting, with 11 people killed at an adult education center in 'rebro. While authorities have ruled out terrorism as a motive, the attack has intensified national debates over security, gun laws, and Sweden's ongoing struggle with rising gang violence. The broader European implication is clear: failing to address security vulnerabilities at home will only fuel extremist narratives and weaken public trust in democratic institutions.

Ukraine's diplomatic maneuvering with the U.S. continues, as President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes for a high-level meeting with Trump's team. Kyiv is attempting to navigate an uncertain transatlantic relationship, as Trump's administration has hinted at potential negotiations with Russia. Zelensky's call for security guarantees'potentially including nuclear deterrence mechanisms'underscores the existential stakes for Ukraine and the broader European security order.

Greenland's upcoming election takes on geopolitical significance, as U.S. interest in acquiring the Arctic island resurfaces under Trump. Greenlandic lawmakers are moving to tighten foreign investment laws and ban political donations from abroad, signaling concerns over both American and Chinese influence. This election will be crucial in determining the future of Arctic governance, a region of growing strategic importance due to climate change and resource extraction.

Belgium's new government is shifting rightward, with Prime Minister Bart De Wever prioritizing stricter migration policies, nuclear energy expansion, and increased defense spending. His administration's push to reverse Belgium's nuclear phase-out and boost military expenditures aligns with NATO's broader call for European rearmament, but it also risks sparking political pushback from left-wing parties and environmental activists.

Europe is at a crossroads. The convergence of hybrid threats, economic pressure from the U.S., political fragmentation, and security crises demands a bold and strategic response. If the EU fails to act decisively, it risks becoming a fragmented, reactive actor in a rapidly shifting global order.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(05-02-2025)

Europe is facing an escalating geopolitical storm, with worsening security threats, economic instability, and political fragmentation. Russia's hybrid warfare is intensifying, the U.S.-EU trade relationship is nearing a breaking point, and far-right movements continue to gain traction across the continent. Without decisive strategic action, Europe risks losing control over its security, economic resilience, and political cohesion.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)

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