Global Risk Indexes (05-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 97 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 (-1 ▼)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

U.S. Trade War, Migration Crackdowns, and Latin American Realignments Deepen Regional Instability

The Americas are experiencing escalating instability as U.S. economic and security policies generate widespread disruptions. The latest developments point to deepening fractures in regional trade cooperation, intensifying migration crises, and an emerging realignment of alliances that could reshape the geopolitical balance in the hemisphere.

U.S. trade war expands, exacerbating economic uncertainty. The Biden administration's confirmation that it will uphold President Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports underscores Washington's commitment to economic protectionism. Canada and Mexico have responded with retaliatory tariffs, further disrupting regional trade flows and supply chains. The weakening of USMCA, once considered a cornerstone of North American economic stability, is pushing Canada and Mexico to seek alternative trade agreements with Europe and Asia.

Latin American economies face ripple effects from U.S. trade policies. Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia are among the nations increasingly concerned about trade disruptions stemming from the North American economic dispute. Brazil has accelerated discussions with China on expanding trade relations, while Argentina is considering participation in the BRICS economic bloc to hedge against U.S. market volatility. These shifts highlight the growing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Latin America trade relations.

Migration policy tensions escalate as U.S. deports record numbers of migrants. The Biden administration is facing mounting criticism over its decision to continue mass deportation policies initiated under the Trump administration. Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador are under increasing pressure to absorb deportees, many of whom lack economic opportunities in their home countries. Additionally, reports of overcrowding in U.S. detention centers and mistreatment of migrants are fueling diplomatic tensions between Washington and Latin American governments.

Geopolitical realignments accelerate as Latin American nations reconsider their foreign policy orientations. Amid heightened trade and security tensions with Washington, several Latin American nations are reassessing their strategic alliances. Argentina is actively deepening military and economic ties with European partners, particularly Germany and France, while Brazil is strengthening its position within the BRICS framework. Meanwhile, Panama's withdrawal from China's Belt and Road Initiative signals Washington's success in countering Beijing's influence in Central America.

Security concerns rise as criminal organizations exploit regional instability. The ongoing trade disruptions, economic slowdowns, and migration pressures are creating new opportunities for transnational criminal networks. The worsening security situation in Mexico, where cartels continue to exert influence over key border regions, is a growing concern for U.S. policymakers. In Colombia, renewed clashes between armed groups threaten to undermine recent peace initiatives, while El Salvador's controversial security policies are drawing international scrutiny.

The regional outlook remains fragile, with short-term risks centered on economic disruptions, migration crises, and security threats. In the long term, the breakdown of regional economic frameworks, the erosion of U.S. influence, and the rise of alternative global partnerships could fundamentally alter the strategic dynamics of the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(05-02-2025)

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas is reaching a critical inflection point as economic warfare, migration crises, and shifting geopolitical alliances continue to destabilize the region. The United States' aggressive trade and immigration policies are not only generating economic uncertainty but also straining diplomatic relations with key regional actors. Meanwhile, Latin American nations are recalibrating their economic and security strategies, with some aligning more closely with Washington while others pivot toward alternative global powers such as China and the European Union. The compounding crises in trade, migration, and political realignments underscore a period of **high geopolitical risk**, with potential long-term consequences for economic integration, security cooperation, and regional stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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