Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) security crisis is escalating as President F'lix Tshisekedi prepares to present a motion at the UN Human Rights Council seeking an investigation into alleged mass human rights violations in Goma. The motion underscores Kinshasa's strategy to internationalize the conflict, pressuring global actors to act against Rwandan-backed M23 rebels. Meanwhile, the upcoming Eastern and Southern African summit in Tanzania presents a critical diplomatic test, with the potential for direct confrontation between Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame. The meeting, which also includes South Africa, Uganda, and Somalia, could determine the trajectory of regional peace efforts.
Mali's mining sector faces mounting uncertainty as Barrick Gold warns of investor flight following the government's aggressive revenue-sharing policies. The country's new mining law, which raises royalties and mandates higher local ownership, has already forced Barrick to suspend operations after authorities seized three metric tons of gold worth $245 million. The move reflects Africa's broader shift toward resource nationalism, but Mali's economic fragility raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of this approach.
Egypt has secured a $3 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with Shell and TotalEnergies to cover domestic demand in 2025. The deal highlights Cairo's urgent need to stabilize its energy supply, following declining domestic gas production and increased power consumption. However, Egypt's shift from an aspiring gas exporter to a net importer raises long-term questions about energy security and economic sustainability.
South Africa's diplomatic row with the U.S. is intensifying, with President Cyril Ramaphosa rejecting Washington's criticisms of land reform, stating that South Africa 'will not be bullied.' The dispute, fueled by Trump's decision to suspend aid, has wider implications, particularly as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio refused to attend the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg. The fallout could affect trade relations, particularly South Africa's status under the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA).
Libya's ongoing migration crisis has reached new levels, with 29 migrant bodies recovered in mass graves and at sea. Smuggling networks continue to exploit Libya's fractured political landscape, underscoring the country's struggle to establish rule of law. The discovery follows last month's reports of 263 migrants being freed from traffickers, highlighting the persistent humanitarian and security challenges in North Africa.
Uganda's cybersecurity crisis has deepened, as a court charged eight finance ministry officials with corruption and fraud related to a $21 million hacking scandal. The breach, which involved redirecting payments from Uganda's central bank to foreign accounts, raises concerns about Africa's financial sector vulnerabilities. The revelations come amid broader efforts to digitize African economies, underscoring the need for stronger cybersecurity infrastructure.
Strategic Implications: February 7 highlights the growing intersection of security, resource governance, and diplomatic realignment in Africa. The DRC conflict remains a focal point for regional instability, while Mali and Zambia's mining policies illustrate the high-stakes battle over resource sovereignty. South Africa's growing friction with the U.S. reflects shifting geopolitical alignments, while Egypt's LNG deal underscores Africa's energy security dilemmas. The continent must balance sovereignty-driven economic policies with long-term stability to avoid unintended financial and security consequences.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(07-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 7, 2025, is defined by escalating regional conflicts, economic fragility, and diplomatic tensions. The DRC crisis remains a primary destabilizing factor, while U.S. sanctions, energy deals, and migration issues highlight Africa's shifting international positioning. Resource nationalism is reshaping economic negotiations in Mali, Zambia, and Nigeria, raising both opportunities and risks. The continent's ability to navigate these disruptions will depend on strategic diplomacy, economic adaptability, and enhanced regional coordination to mitigate instability.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7 - (07-02-2025)
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
- Resource Politics, Military Maneuvering, and Diplomatic Fractures: Africa's Key Shifts on February 5 - (05-02-2025)
- Conflict, Economic Nationalism, and Diplomatic Tensions: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 4 - (04-02-2025)
- Diplomatic Tensions, Security Crises, and Resource Sovereignty: Africa's Shifting Geopolitical Landscape on February 3 - (03-02-2025)
- Africa's Critical Inflection Point: Conflict Escalation, Economic Sovereignty, and Regional Realignment Shape the Continent's Future - (02-02-2025)
- Conflicts, Resource Nationalism, and Economic Realignments: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 1 - (01-02-2025)
- Escalating Conflicts, Resource Rivalries, and Economic Fragility: Africa's Geopolitical Realities on January 31 - (31-01-2025)
