Global Risk Indexes (07-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 (-1 ▼)
Africa 96 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade War Intensifies, Migration Crisis Deepens, and Security Threats Escalate in the Americas

The Americas are facing escalating economic, political, and security instability. The ongoing U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war, the hardening of U.S. migration policies, and the expansion of organized crime networks are shaping a period of heightened geopolitical volatility.

North American trade relations continue to deteriorate. The Trump administration's decision to impose new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods has prompted swift retaliatory actions from both nations. Mexico has announced additional tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, while Canada is considering trade restrictions on U.S. energy exports. The economic fallout from these measures is already visible, with supply chains experiencing disruptions and investor confidence weakening across key sectors.

Mexico and Canada accelerate economic diversification strategies. In response to U.S. trade aggression, Mexico has strengthened trade discussions with China and the European Union, while Canada is deepening ties with Asia-Pacific economies. These shifts indicate a growing regional pivot away from Washington, with long-term implications for the structure of North American economic relations.

Migration tensions rise as U.S. border enforcement tightens. The Trump administration has authorized an expanded deployment of National Guard troops along the U.S.-Mexico border, citing security concerns over migrant flows. The humanitarian impact of this policy is becoming increasingly severe, with reports of overcrowded detention centers and rising tensions at border crossings. Meanwhile, Mexico is under pressure to enforce stricter immigration controls on its southern border, leading to diplomatic strain with Central American nations.

Security challenges worsen as organized crime expands its influence. The escalation of economic hardship in Mexico and Central America is providing criminal networks with greater recruitment opportunities. Drug cartels and human trafficking syndicates are exploiting governance gaps, particularly in northern Mexico and key transit corridors in Guatemala and Honduras. The Mexican government's inability to contain cartel violence is raising concerns in Washington, with discussions emerging around potential U.S. intervention in counter-narcotics operations.

Argentina's geopolitical pivot continues as it distances itself from Washington. Buenos Aires is strengthening defense and trade ties with European nations, signaling a shift away from historical U.S. alignment. The government is negotiating a new security cooperation agreement with France and exploring European investment in its energy sector, highlighting broader shifts in Latin America's geopolitical landscape.

The geopolitical outlook for the Americas remains precarious. Short-term risks include economic instability, migration crises, and security threats. In the long term, the realignment of regional trade partnerships, the erosion of U.S. influence, and the entrenchment of criminal networks could redefine the strategic order in the hemisphere.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(07-02-2025)

The Americas are undergoing profound geopolitical shifts as economic fragmentation, migration crises, and security threats continue to destabilize the region. The U.S.-led trade war with Mexico and Canada is forcing key regional actors to reassess their economic alignments, while the intensification of U.S. migration policies is triggering diplomatic tensions and social unrest. Additionally, the growing influence of organized crime, coupled with governance failures in several nations, is exacerbating insecurity. The region faces a critical period of political realignment and economic uncertainty, with long-term consequences for trade, diplomatic relations, and security stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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