Sanctions, Resource Nationalism, and Regional Conflicts: Africa's Volatile Geopolitical Landscape on February 8
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) crisis is taking on a new diplomatic dimension, with the United States warning of potential sanctions against officials from both the Rwandan and Congolese governments. Washington's stance reflects growing frustration with both sides, as M23 rebels continue their advance into South Kivu despite a ceasefire. The U.S. demand that Rwanda withdraw its military and advanced weaponry from the DRC underscores Kigali's deepening international isolation. Meanwhile, a high-stakes regional summit in Tanzania has failed to produce a unified response, with East and Southern African blocs divided over their approach to the conflict.
Rwanda has escalated its rhetoric against Kinshasa, alleging that the DRC was preparing a large-scale attack on Rwandan territory. Kigali's claims, which cite the stockpiling of advanced weaponry near Goma airport, reflect growing fears that the conflict could spill across the border. This escalation comes as the U.N. warns of an impending humanitarian catastrophe, with at least 2,800 dead and concerns over sexual violence and disease outbreaks in M23-controlled areas.
Mali's gold sector is in turmoil, with industrial production plunging by 23% in 2024 due to government disputes with foreign mining firms. The fallout from Mali's controversial new mining code, which raises state ownership stakes and tax rates, has driven out key investors, including Barrick Gold. With four Barrick employees arrested on charges of money laundering and terrorism financing'charges the company denies'the sector faces a crisis of confidence. The government's aggressive approach may backfire, as declining investment threatens to deepen economic instability.
South Africa's economic recovery faces obstacles, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa's pledge to implement a second wave of economic reforms. The rand, which initially tumbled after Donald Trump's announcement of an aid freeze, has partially recovered, driven by investor confidence in planned state-sector overhauls. However, U.S. diplomatic retaliation over land reform policies, combined with broader economic headwinds, may undermine South Africa's long-term growth prospects.
The joint Eastern and Southern African summit in Tanzania has exposed deep regional divisions, with leaders struggling to agree on a common security approach to the DRC crisis. The summit's call for 'direct talks' with M23 rebels has angered Kinshasa, which refuses to negotiate with the group. The failure to produce a unified peace plan further weakens Africa's ability to manage internal conflicts, raising concerns about the effectiveness of multilateral bodies like the African Union in addressing regional instability.
Mali's security crisis has worsened, with at least 50 civilians killed in an ambush near Gao. The attack, suspected to be carried out by affiliates of Islamic State, highlights the persistent jihadist threat in the Sahel. The frequency of such attacks, despite increased military efforts, suggests that counterterrorism strategies remain ineffective. The growing humanitarian toll'over 3.2 million displaced across the Sahel'necessitates urgent regional coordination.
Ivory Coast's political landscape is shifting, as former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam officially renounces his French citizenship to meet eligibility requirements for the October 2025 presidential election. Thiam's candidacy, if confirmed, could challenge President Alassane Ouattara's expected bid for a fourth term, setting the stage for a contentious election cycle in one of West Africa's most stable economies.
Strategic Implications: February 8 underscores Africa's fragile security landscape, deepening resource nationalism, and widening diplomatic rifts. The DRC conflict remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with the risk of further international sanctions. Mali's mining crisis could set a precedent for economic mismanagement under nationalist policies, while South Africa's diplomatic standoff with the U.S. highlights the continent's delicate position in global politics. Without decisive regional leadership and economic recalibration, Africa risks prolonged instability and economic downturns.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(08-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 8, 2025, is marked by deepening regional conflicts, economic fragility, and shifting diplomatic alliances. The DRC crisis continues to escalate, with the U.S. threatening sanctions against both Congolese and Rwandan officials. The mining industry in Mali faces turmoil due to resource nationalism, while South Africa's economic and diplomatic challenges with the U.S. persist. Meanwhile, regional summits highlight Africa's growing internal divisions on security and governance. The continent must prioritize regional cohesion, strategic economic policies, and diplomatic maneuvering to avoid further instability.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Sanctions, Resource Nationalism, and Regional Conflicts: Africa's Volatile Geopolitical Landscape on February 8 - (08-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7 - (07-02-2025)
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
- Resource Politics, Military Maneuvering, and Diplomatic Fractures: Africa's Key Shifts on February 5 - (05-02-2025)
- Conflict, Economic Nationalism, and Diplomatic Tensions: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 4 - (04-02-2025)
- Diplomatic Tensions, Security Crises, and Resource Sovereignty: Africa's Shifting Geopolitical Landscape on February 3 - (03-02-2025)
- Africa's Critical Inflection Point: Conflict Escalation, Economic Sovereignty, and Regional Realignment Shape the Continent's Future - (02-02-2025)
- Conflicts, Resource Nationalism, and Economic Realignments: Africa's Strategic Crossroads on February 1 - (01-02-2025)
