Global Risk Indexes (08-02-2025)

Global 97 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 96 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Fragmentation, Migration Strains, and Security Threats Redefine the Americas' Geopolitical Landscape

The geopolitical and economic landscape of the Americas is undergoing a profound transformation. The worsening trade war, migration pressures, and security crises are converging to accelerate regional fragmentation and long-term geopolitical shifts.

The North American trade war escalates as economic decoupling gains momentum. The Trump administration's latest round of tariffs on Mexico and Canada has prompted further retaliatory measures, with Mexico imposing tariffs on key U.S. agricultural exports and Canada considering restrictions on U.S. energy imports. These developments are not just short-term trade skirmishes but signal a broader decoupling of North American economic integration. Mexico is now actively exploring new trade deals with China, while Canada is intensifying efforts to deepen trade relations with the European Union and Asia-Pacific nations.

Migration tensions intensify as Washington doubles down on deportation and border security policies. The Trump administration's expansion of military presence at the U.S.-Mexico border, combined with stepped-up deportations, is fueling a humanitarian crisis. The Mexican government is struggling to accommodate deported migrants, while Central American nations are warning that the inflow of returnees could destabilize already fragile economies. U.S. immigration policies are triggering backlash across Latin America, with governments accusing Washington of exacerbating regional instability.

Argentina and Brazil accelerate their geopolitical diversification strategies. Argentina's government is pushing forward with its pivot toward European defense and trade partnerships, marking a continued strategic shift away from U.S. influence. Meanwhile, Brazil is expanding economic ties with China, including new agreements on agricultural exports and infrastructure investments. These moves highlight Latin America's growing reluctance to rely on Washington, as regional leaders seek to build alternative economic and security frameworks.

Organized crime networks exploit governance failures and economic uncertainty. The economic downturn in Mexico, combined with weak governance in several Central American nations, is providing fertile ground for criminal organizations to expand their operations. Drug cartels and human trafficking networks are taking advantage of worsening economic conditions and border disruptions to increase their influence. Meanwhile, the rising power of armed groups in Colombia is threatening the country's fragile peace process, raising concerns about long-term stability.

U.S. influence in Latin America is being challenged as regional players assert their independence. Washington's heavy-handed trade and immigration policies are pushing key Latin American nations to seek greater autonomy in their foreign and economic policies. While some countries, such as Panama and El Salvador, remain closely aligned with U.S. strategic interests, others'including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil'are actively pursuing economic and diplomatic alternatives.

The short-term risks include worsening economic instability, humanitarian crises, and rising security threats. In the long term, the continued fracturing of regional economic frameworks, the decline of U.S. influence, and the emergence of alternative global partnerships could redefine the geopolitical structure of the Americas for decades to come.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(08-02-2025)

The Americas continue to face an escalation in geopolitical risks, driven by deepening economic fragmentation, the worsening migration crisis, and rising security threats. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is accelerating regional economic diversification, while Washington's increasingly hardline immigration policies are generating diplomatic fallout and humanitarian instability. Meanwhile, the expansion of organized crime and governance failures in several Latin American nations are further destabilizing the region. The geopolitical realignment taking place across the hemisphere could reshape global trade, security cooperation, and diplomatic alliances for years to come.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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