War in the DRC, Sudan's Ceasefire Rejection, and South Africa's Trade Disputes: Africa's Key Developments on February 12
The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) security crisis is worsening, with CODECO militants killing over 51 civilians in Ituri province and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels threatening to advance on Bukavu. The situation risks transforming the conflict into a full-scale regional war, with Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda already entangled. The Congolese army's military court is now trying 272 soldiers for looting and misconduct, underscoring the governance challenges Kinshasa faces even within its own forces. Meanwhile, U.S. aid cuts have crippled humanitarian operations, forcing the closure of emergency relief programs. With mass displacement continuing and diplomatic mediation failing, the DRC remains Africa's most volatile conflict zone.
Sudan's civil war shows no signs of de-escalation, as General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's army rejected the UAE's call for a Ramadan ceasefire, citing the need to break RSF sieges before negotiations. The rejection highlights deep mistrust, particularly as Sudan accuses the UAE of arming the RSF'claims supported by UN experts and U.S. lawmakers. Meanwhile, the UAE's $200 million humanitarian aid package and proposed African Union-backed summit have been dismissed by Khartoum, further straining regional diplomacy. The ongoing war, which has displaced over 12 million people, continues to fuel one of the world's largest humanitarian crises.
South Africa's economic fragility is under scrutiny, as the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum threaten to exacerbate trade tensions. While South African officials claim minimal impact, the broader implications for AGOA eligibility remain uncertain. Simultaneously, the rand has remained steady, but inflation concerns persist, with global interest rate policies dictating its future trajectory. Manufacturing output continues to contract, reflecting broader structural economic weaknesses.
Kenya's budget expansion raises concerns over fiscal sustainability, as President William Ruto's cabinet approves a $32.65 billion spending plan. While the government projects 5.3% growth, questions remain over revenue generation, particularly after Ruto was forced to abandon $2.7 billion in tax hikes following mass protests. The additional $1.5 billion in spending for the 2024/25 budget suggests further borrowing, potentially increasing Kenya's debt burden.
Tanzania is renegotiating tax incentives for its stalled $42 billion LNG project, involving Equinor, Shell, and ExxonMobil. The government hopes to finalize agreements by mid-year, unlocking vast natural gas reserves. Meanwhile, the country is set to auction 26 oil and gas blocks in March, reflecting its ambition to become an energy hub. However, investor concerns over regulatory unpredictability could delay progress.
Somalia's counterterrorism operations have intensified, with government forces'backed by UAE airstrikes'killing 70 Islamic State militants in Puntland. The offensive follows a failed terrorist assault on military bases, underscoring the persistent jihadist threat. Somalia's ability to secure its northeastern region remains critical, particularly as IS and al-Shabaab continue to compete for influence.
Libya's human rights crisis deepens, as international agencies confirm that migrants found in mass graves were executed by smuggling networks. The revelation highlights the continued failure of Libyan authorities to control human trafficking, reinforcing concerns over the country's security vacuum.
Strategic Implications: February 12 highlights Africa's growing instability across multiple fronts. The DRC conflict is rapidly escalating, raising the risk of regional spillover. Sudan's rejection of peace talks signals continued fragmentation, while South Africa's trade tensions with the U.S. threaten economic uncertainty. Kenya's fiscal policies require careful balancing to avoid debt distress, and Tanzania's energy sector ambitions face regulatory hurdles. Meanwhile, Somalia's counterterrorism success and Libya's migration crisis underscore the complexities of regional security. Addressing these challenges will require strategic diplomatic interventions, sustainable economic policies, and coordinated security efforts.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(12-02-2025)
Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 12, 2025, is defined by escalating security threats, economic instability, and shifting diplomatic alliances. The intensification of conflict in the DRC, Sudan's rejection of a UAE-brokered ceasefire, and Somalia's counterterrorism operations highlight the continent's ongoing security challenges. Meanwhile, South Africa's economic concerns deepen amid U.S. trade tensions, Kenya's budget expansion raises fiscal sustainability questions, and Tanzania seeks energy investment amid stalled projects. The continent's ability to navigate these developments will depend on regional cooperation, economic pragmatism, and strategic diplomacy.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- War in the DRC, Sudan's Ceasefire Rejection, and South Africa's Trade Disputes: Africa's Key Developments on February 12 - (12-02-2025)
- Land Reform Tensions, Regional Conflicts, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on February 11 - (11-02-2025)
- South Africa's Diplomatic Rift, Congo's Military Crisis, and Sudan's Power Struggle: Africa's Key Developments on February 10 - (10-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Global Realignments: Africa's Strategic Outlook for February 9 - (09-02-2025)
- Sanctions, Resource Nationalism, and Regional Conflicts: Africa's Volatile Geopolitical Landscape on February 8 - (08-02-2025)
- Conflict, Resource Nationalism, and Diplomatic Shifts: Africa's Strategic Outlook on February 7 - (07-02-2025)
- Resource Nationalism, Security Crises, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Strategic Landscape on February 6 - (06-02-2025)
- Resource Politics, Military Maneuvering, and Diplomatic Fractures: Africa's Key Shifts on February 5 - (05-02-2025)
