Global Risk Indexes (12-02-2025)

Global 97 (-1 ▼)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 (-2 ▼)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 (-1 ▼)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Realignments, Border Disputes, and Security Challenges Drive Instability in the Americas

The Americas continue to navigate a period of heightened geopolitical instability. The worsening U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war, rising migration disputes, and escalating security threats are shaping the region's strategic landscape.

The North American trade war escalates as Mexico and Canada solidify alternative trade strategies. Mexico has intensified negotiations with China, particularly in manufacturing and energy, while Canada is finalizing new trade agreements with the European Union and Indo-Pacific partners. These moves signal a long-term decoupling from U.S.-centered economic frameworks and an acceleration of global trade diversification efforts.

Latin American nations advance economic and diplomatic realignment. Argentina's continued expansion of trade ties with Europe, along with Brazil's deepening engagement with China in technology and agriculture, highlights the region's gradual shift away from U.S. economic hegemony. These trends suggest a restructuring of Latin America's global partnerships, reducing Washington's influence over regional economic decision-making.

Migration disputes intensify as U.S. border policies create regional frictions. The Trump administration's aggressive deportation policies and increased militarization at the U.S.-Mexico border have worsened humanitarian conditions and diplomatic relations. Mexico and Central American nations are struggling to absorb deportees while grappling with rising political pressures to enforce stricter migration controls.

Criminal organizations exploit security gaps amid economic uncertainty. Weak governance in Mexico, El Salvador, and Guatemala has enabled organized crime groups to expand drug trafficking and human smuggling networks. The inability of local governments to curb cartel activities is raising concerns about regional security and potential foreign intervention in counter-narcotics efforts.

Geopolitical divergence deepens as Latin America balances between U.S. influence and alternative alliances. While Washington remains a key player in regional security and trade, its economic and diplomatic leverage is increasingly being challenged by China and European powers. The growing multipolar nature of Latin American foreign policy suggests a long-term shift in the balance of power.

Short-term risks include economic volatility, diplomatic strains over migration policies, and worsening security conditions. In the long term, the diversification of trade partnerships, the decline of U.S. regional dominance, and the entrenchment of organized crime could reshape the strategic order of the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(12-02-2025)

The Americas are experiencing an accelerated shift in economic and geopolitical alignments. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to deepen economic fragmentation, pushing key regional actors toward alternative trade agreements with Europe and Asia. Meanwhile, Washington's increasingly aggressive border enforcement policies are fueling diplomatic tensions and humanitarian crises, particularly in Mexico and Central America. Additionally, the growth of organized crime, coupled with weakened governance structures, is exacerbating security threats. The growing divergence between U.S.-aligned and independent Latin American nations underscores a long-term trend of regional realignment, with lasting implications for trade, diplomacy, and security cooperation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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