Global Risk Indexes (10-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Realignment, Migration Tensions, and Security Risks Drive Instability in the Americas

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas continues to evolve as economic decoupling, migration crises, and security threats converge. Regional governments are facing escalating diplomatic and economic pressures as Washington's policies force reassessments of trade alignments, security priorities, and border management strategies.

The North American trade war intensifies, reinforcing economic shifts away from U.S. dependence. Mexico and Canada are accelerating diversification efforts, with Mexico deepening discussions with China on manufacturing investments and Canada securing new trade agreements with the European Union. These moves highlight the growing departure from U.S.-centered economic frameworks, signaling a permanent reconfiguration of regional trade dynamics.

Latin America's geopolitical diversification accelerates. Argentina's deepening energy partnerships with European firms and Brazil's strengthened agricultural and technology ties with China indicate a long-term strategy of economic diversification. These developments suggest a weakening of traditional U.S. economic influence in South America.

Migration policies fuel tensions across the region. The Trump administration's expanded deportation policies are triggering diplomatic disputes as Mexico and Central American nations struggle to accommodate deportees. Reports of increased migrant detentions and humanitarian concerns at the U.S.-Mexico border are drawing international criticism, straining relations between Washington and regional governments.

Organized crime exploits economic instability. Weak governance and economic slowdowns are enabling criminal organizations to expand operations in Mexico, Colombia, and parts of Central America. Drug cartels and human trafficking networks are taking advantage of border security gaps and the economic vulnerability of displaced populations.

The balance of power in the Americas is shifting. While some governments, such as those of Panama and El Salvador, remain closely aligned with U.S. strategic objectives, others'including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil'are taking steps to reduce economic and political reliance on Washington. This divergence signals an emerging new geopolitical framework in the region.

Short-term risks include continued economic instability, migration-driven diplomatic disputes, and worsening security conditions. In the long term, the fragmentation of regional trade partnerships, the rise of alternative global economic blocs, and the entrenchment of organized crime could reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(10-02-2025)

The Americas remain in a phase of heightened geopolitical risk due to continued economic fragmentation, worsening migration crises, and deepening security concerns. The U.S. trade war with Mexico and Canada is further solidifying economic realignments, while Washington's hardline immigration policies are intensifying diplomatic and humanitarian challenges. At the same time, organized crime is expanding its influence in areas where state governance is weak. The increasing divergence between U.S.-aligned and independent Latin American nations suggests long-term strategic shifts that could reshape trade, security, and diplomatic structures in the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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