Global Risk Indexes (10-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Trump's Gaza Takeover Plan Faces Fierce Arab Rejection, Iran's Economic Crisis Worsens, and Israel Edges Toward Renewed Escalation

The Middle East is rapidly approaching a critical turning point as major geopolitical flashpoints escalate. U.S. President Donald Trump's insistence on taking over Gaza and displacing its Palestinian population has triggered a unified Arab response, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt leading the opposition. Cairo's announcement of an emergency Arab summit on February 27 signals a coordinated effort to counter Washington's narrative and prevent any forced Palestinian expulsion. Meanwhile, Iran is facing severe economic turmoil, with its currency plummeting to an all-time low as Trump reinstates his 'maximum pressure' campaign. In parallel, Israel's Gaza ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, with Netanyahu under growing domestic and international pressure to take decisive action. As tensions rise in the West Bank, where Israeli forces killed two Palestinian women, and as Trump signals frustration with the hostage deal, the risk of a renewed Israeli military escalation is increasing. At the same time, anti-Iran protests in Europe, particularly in Paris, highlight growing international opposition to Tehran's policies, while oil market volatility continues amid Trump's new tariff threats and geopolitical uncertainties.

Trump's Gaza Takeover Plan: A Breaking Point in U.S.-Arab Relations

Trump's Gaza proposal has entered a new phase of diplomatic resistance, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt categorically rejecting any Palestinian displacement. Netanyahu's suggestion that regional players like Egypt could help manage a post-war Gaza has been dismissed as 'delusional' by Cairo, with Egyptian officials warning that such rhetoric threatens regional stability. The announcement of an emergency Arab summit in Egypt on February 27 underscores the determination of Arab states to present a united front against Trump's plan. If Washington continues to push for Palestinian displacement, it risks a major rift with its Arab allies, further strengthening Iran's position as the self-proclaimed champion of Palestinian resistance.

Iran's Economic Collapse: Sanctions Take a Heavy Toll

Iran's currency has plunged to a historic low, reflecting the severe impact of Trump's renewed sanctions and Tehran's growing economic isolation. Supreme Leader Khamenei's rejection of U.S. talks signals that Iran is digging in for a prolonged confrontation, despite mounting internal pressures. Mass anti-Iran protests in Paris, featuring both Iranian dissidents and Ukrainians accusing Tehran of supporting Russia, highlight the growing international opposition to the regime. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) is intensifying its campaign abroad, increasing pressure on European governments to take a harder stance on Tehran. If Iran's economic crisis deepens, the likelihood of internal unrest and regime instability will increase, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

Israel and the Gaza Ceasefire: A Fragile Truce Under Threat

Negotiations between Israel and Qatar over the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire have stalled, with Netanyahu's government downplaying expectations. Trump's growing frustration over images of frail Israeli hostages, coupled with pressure from Israel's far-right coalition members, suggests that a renewed Israeli military operation in Gaza is increasingly likely. The killing of two Palestinian women in the West Bank, one of whom was pregnant, has already escalated tensions, increasing the risk of broader clashes. If the ceasefire collapses, Israel may launch a new military campaign to reassert control, further destabilizing the region.

Oil Markets and Economic Uncertainty: The Trump Factor

Oil prices have edged higher despite Trump's threats to impose new tariffs on steel and aluminum, reflecting continued market volatility. Gulf economies are closely watching Washington's trade policies, as increased tariffs could slow global demand and impact energy prices. Stock markets in the Gulf remain mixed, with investors assessing the broader implications of Trump's trade strategy on regional economies. If economic uncertainty continues, the Gulf states may adjust their energy and investment strategies to navigate potential global market disruptions.

Strategic Outlook

The MENA region is entering a volatile phase, with multiple crises unfolding simultaneously. Trump's Gaza plan has backfired diplomatically, uniting Arab states in opposition and straining U.S. alliances. Iran's economic crisis, exacerbated by sanctions and internal dissent, raises the risk of internal instability. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is on shaky ground, with increased pressure on Netanyahu to take military action. Meanwhile, anti-Iran protests in Europe and oil market volatility add further uncertainty. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can contain these crises or if the region is heading toward deeper instability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(10-02-2025)

The MENA region is experiencing heightened instability as diplomatic tensions, economic crises, and military escalations converge. Trump's push for a Gaza takeover is rapidly turning into an international crisis, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt forcefully rejecting any displacement of Palestinians. Iran's economic situation is deteriorating as its currency hits an all-time low under renewed U.S. sanctions, fueling internal dissent and mass protests abroad. Egypt's decision to host an emergency Arab summit on February 27 signals growing regional opposition to Washington's policies. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's government is facing intense domestic and international pressure as ceasefire talks with Qatar stall and West Bank violence escalates. Trump's impatience with the Gaza ceasefire deal, coupled with growing Israeli frustration over hostage negotiations, increases the likelihood of a renewed Israeli military campaign. Simultaneously, anti-Iran protests in Europe are adding pressure on Tehran, while Gulf economies navigate uncertainty amid Trump's tariff threats and oil price volatility. With regional diplomacy at an impasse, economic crises deepening, and military confrontations escalating, the risk of further instability remains dangerously high.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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