Global Risk Indexes (11-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Fragmentation, Migration Tensions, and Security Threats Escalate Across the Americas

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas remains in flux as key regional players reassess their economic alignments and security policies. The continued escalation of U.S. trade policies, migration crackdowns, and security threats is shaping a period of heightened volatility.

The North American trade war intensifies as Mexico and Canada accelerate diversification. The latest round of U.S. tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports has led to additional retaliatory measures. Mexico is fast-tracking trade negotiations with China and the European Union, while Canada is expanding partnerships with Asian economies. The weakening of the USMCA framework indicates a long-term shift in North American economic structures.

Latin American economic diversification gains momentum. Argentina is deepening energy-sector collaborations with European firms, while Brazil is negotiating new trade agreements with China. These moves underscore a broader regional trend of reducing dependence on U.S. economic policies.

U.S. immigration policies generate humanitarian and diplomatic challenges. The Trump administration's expansion of mass deportations has led to overcrowding in Mexican border regions, straining resources and security infrastructure. Reports of increased detentions and legal battles in U.S. immigration courts are fueling diplomatic tensions between Washington and Latin American governments.

Criminal organizations exploit regional instability. The worsening economic downturn and governance failures in Mexico and Central America are enabling cartels and trafficking syndicates to expand operations. Colombia faces renewed security challenges as armed groups take advantage of political fragmentation.

Regional power dynamics are shifting. While some Latin American nations, such as Panama and El Salvador, remain aligned with Washington, others'including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil'are increasingly asserting strategic autonomy. The divide between U.S.-aligned and independent nations is becoming more pronounced.

Short-term risks include continued economic instability, social unrest over migration policies, and rising security threats. In the long term, the fragmentation of regional trade alliances, the erosion of U.S. influence, and the entrenchment of organized crime could reshape the geopolitical balance in the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(11-02-2025)

The Americas continue to experience deepening geopolitical tensions as economic decoupling, migration crises, and security threats escalate. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is further entrenching economic realignments, forcing Latin American nations to diversify partnerships. Meanwhile, U.S. immigration policies are worsening humanitarian conditions and straining diplomatic ties with key regional allies. The expansion of organized crime, exacerbated by governance failures, is adding to regional instability. The trend of Latin American nations seeking strategic autonomy is solidifying, increasing long-term geopolitical fragmentation.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Direct (04-02-2025)

Mass Deportation of Venezuelans

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The potential removal of TPS protections will create a humanitarian crisis, strain diplomatic relations, and destabilize Latin American economies reliant on remittances from migrants in the U.S.

Direct (04-02-2025)

Trump's Expanding Immigration Crackdown

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The use of the Alien Enemies Act and mass deportations signal an unprecedented shift in U.S. immigration policy, increasing legal battles and regional tensions.

Direct (11-02-2025)

U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade War and Economic Shifts

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The deepening trade conflict is accelerating economic diversification away from U.S. markets, leading to long-term shifts in North American trade relations.

Indirect (11-02-2025)

Latin America's Strategic Economic Realignment

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: Argentina's energy partnerships with Europe and Brazil's trade deals with China indicate a broad regional strategy to hedge against U.S. economic influence.

Direct (11-02-2025)

U.S. Immigration Policies and Regional Repercussions

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The expansion of U.S. deportation policies is straining Mexican border resources, worsening humanitarian conditions, and fueling diplomatic tensions.

Direct (10-02-2025)

Escalation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade War

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The continued tariff disputes are reinforcing North America's economic decoupling, prompting Mexico and Canada to seek long-term trade diversification.

Indirect (10-02-2025)

Latin America's Strategic Economic Realignment

Impacts:

Short-term: 8, Long-term: 9

Assessment: The economic realignments of Argentina and Brazil toward Europe and China are part of a broader strategic shift that reduces U.S. influence in Latin America.

Direct (10-02-2025)

U.S. Immigration Policies and Diplomatic Fallout

Impacts:

Short-term: 9, Long-term: 8

Assessment: The Trump administration's hardline immigration stance is exacerbating humanitarian and diplomatic tensions across the region, straining U.S.-Latin American relations.

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings