Global Risk Indexes (11-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Land Reform Tensions, Regional Conflicts, and Economic Uncertainty: Africa's Geopolitical Landscape on February 11

South Africa's land reform dispute with the U.S. has escalated, as Jacob Zuma's MK party filed a treason complaint against AfriForum, accusing it of influencing Washington's decision to cut aid. The move highlights growing divisions over land expropriation policies, which remain a deeply contentious issue. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum further strain relations, with South African markets reacting to the latest wave of economic pressure. The long-term concern is whether Washington's position will affect South Africa's status under the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA), potentially impacting trade access to U.S. markets.

Security concerns in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continue to rise, as South Africa deploys additional troops to reinforce its mission against M23 rebels. The deployment follows the deaths of 14 South African soldiers last month and raises questions about Pretoria's long-term commitment to the DRC conflict. Meanwhile, Uganda and Burundi have also reinforced their positions in eastern Congo, increasing the likelihood of an expanded regional war. With Rwanda accused of direct military involvement, the risk of full-scale interstate conflict is mounting.

Economic challenges are growing in Botswana, as the country struggles with its dependence on diamond exports. Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe projected a 3.3% economic recovery for 2025, driven by a rebound in the diamond market, but acknowledged that diversification remains a top priority. The government's push into tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing is a necessary step, but execution challenges remain. Botswana's overreliance on diamonds leaves it vulnerable to global market fluctuations, and long-term economic stability will depend on structural reforms.

Mali's mining crisis continues to deepen, with investor flight accelerating following the government's latest asset seizures. Barrick Gold's suspension of operations underscores the risks of aggressive resource nationalism, with capital flight threatening government revenues. The situation is further exacerbated by Mali's growing reliance on Russian security support, which has alienated Western investors. While the government argues that these policies will increase national control over resources, the immediate impact is economic instability.

Kenya's labor migration strategy is gaining momentum, with over 200,000 workers sent abroad in the last two years and plans to expand the program. The government sees overseas labor as a solution to domestic unemployment and a means to increase remittance inflows. However, political backlash in destination countries'particularly in Germany'could disrupt these plans. With right-wing parties gaining ground ahead of Germany's elections, immigration policies could tighten, threatening Kenya's strategy.

Egypt's inflation remains high, with the annual urban consumer price index at 24% in January. While lower than the peak of 38% in 2023, persistent price pressures highlight ongoing economic vulnerabilities. Food and transport costs continue to rise, driven by a weak currency and external financial shocks. With foreign investors still wary, Egypt's economic trajectory remains uncertain.

Libya's migration crisis worsens, as international agencies confirm that migrants found in mass graves were victims of gunshot wounds. The revelation points to systemic human rights abuses, with smuggling networks continuing to exploit Libya's fragmented governance. The lack of political stability in Libya has made it a hub for transnational crime, reinforcing the urgency of international intervention.

Strategic Implications: February 11 highlights Africa's geopolitical volatility, with escalating diplomatic disputes, economic vulnerabilities, and security crises. South Africa's confrontation with the U.S. risks trade disruptions, while the DRC conflict continues to draw in regional powers. Botswana's economic restructuring efforts remain fragile, and Mali's resource nationalism could trigger long-term investor flight. Meanwhile, Kenya's labor export strategy faces political risks abroad, and Libya's human trafficking crisis underscores North Africa's governance failures. Addressing these challenges requires a mix of strategic diplomacy, economic pragmatism, and coordinated security responses.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(11-02-2025)

Africa's geopolitical landscape on February 11, 2025, is shaped by intensifying diplomatic confrontations, economic realignments, and deepening security crises. South Africa's standoff with the U.S. over land reform is fueling domestic and international tensions, while the DRC conflict risks drawing in more regional players. Economic instability is mounting, with Botswana's overreliance on diamonds being tested, Mali's mining crisis persisting, and Egypt's inflation rate remaining stubbornly high. Meanwhile, Kenya's push to export labor marks a structural economic shift but faces political challenges in destination countries. These developments demand strategic recalibration to mitigate financial risks, enhance security cooperation, and navigate evolving global alliances.

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