Global Risk Indexes (13-02-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 95 (-1 ▼)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Geopolitical Realignments, Economic Decoupling, and Security Threats Intensify Across the Americas

The geopolitical landscape of the Americas continues to be shaped by economic fragmentation, security volatility, and migration-driven diplomatic conflicts. Key nations are adapting to shifting global trade patterns while contending with internal and external security risks.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to drive economic realignments. Mexico's ongoing trade diversification strategy includes accelerating agreements with China on industrial and energy investments, further reducing its economic reliance on Washington. Canada, meanwhile, has finalized new trade arrangements with European and Indo-Pacific partners, signaling a broader shift away from the U.S.-dominated North American trade structure.

Latin America strengthens ties with alternative economic partners. Brazil's agricultural and infrastructure deals with China are deepening, while Argentina is finalizing energy-sector collaborations with European nations. These strategic pivots underscore Latin America's move toward economic self-sufficiency and reduced dependence on U.S. trade and investment.

Migration disputes escalate, intensifying diplomatic tensions. The Trump administration's expanded immigration enforcement policies have led to further mass deportations, overwhelming Mexican and Central American border cities. Reports of deteriorating conditions in migrant detention centers and border clashes are drawing sharp criticism from international human rights organizations.

Organized crime networks expand operations amid political uncertainty. The inability of governments in Mexico, El Salvador, and Honduras to curb cartel violence is fueling insecurity across the region. Rising homicide rates and increasing cartel control over key trade routes are becoming central security concerns for Washington.

U.S. influence in Latin America faces growing challenges. While Washington remains engaged in regional security and trade, its ability to shape economic policies is diminishing as Latin American nations diversify their diplomatic and economic alliances. The emerging geopolitical divide between U.S.-aligned and independent regional actors is becoming more pronounced.

Short-term risks include economic instability, intensified migration-related conflicts, and escalating security threats. In the long term, the continued shift in economic alignments, the erosion of U.S. influence, and the consolidation of new regional power structures will redefine the geopolitical balance in the Americas.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(13-02-2025)

The Americas are facing escalating geopolitical and economic fragmentation, fueled by deepening trade realignments, worsening migration disputes, and growing security threats. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is solidifying alternative economic partnerships, particularly between Latin America and China. Meanwhile, Washington's increasingly aggressive immigration policies are causing humanitarian strain and diplomatic rifts, particularly with Mexico and Central America. The expansion of organized crime in regions with weak governance is exacerbating instability. These converging trends indicate a long-term geopolitical shift, reducing U.S. influence and increasing multipolarity across the region.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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