Global Risk Indexes (18-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Economic Fragmentation, Security Volatility, and Political Uncertainty Deepen the Americas’ Geopolitical Risks

The Americas are undergoing a geopolitical transformation characterized by trade fragmentation, security deterioration, and political uncertainty. Key economic and diplomatic shifts are reshaping regional stability and the global positioning of major Latin American economies.

North American trade tensions remain a central destabilizing factor. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to disrupt economic ties, forcing Mexico and Canada to further explore alternative partnerships with China and Europe. The looming 25% U.S. import tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods—including tequila and other key exports—are heightening economic volatility. Uncertainty surrounding future trade relations is freezing investment decisions, affecting industries reliant on North American integration.

Argentina faces a critical turning point in its economic recovery. President Javier Milei’s aggressive economic reforms have restored investor confidence to some extent, attracting renewed Brazilian interest in Argentina’s markets. However, the recent cryptocurrency scandal—now under judicial investigation—has damaged his credibility and could slow momentum for further economic reforms. The opposition’s push for an impeachment trial is unlikely to succeed but signals rising political risk. If instability worsens, Argentina could see capital flight and weakened investor confidence.

Environmental degradation and security threats intensify across Latin America. Illegal mining and deforestation in Brazil and Peru remain major concerns. Brazil’s recent seizure of 5,000 truckloads of illegal timber highlights the persistent challenge of environmental crime, while Peru’s indigenous leaders warn that illegal miners are using children as human shields to evade law enforcement. The intersection of environmental crime and organized criminal networks is weakening state governance, especially in remote regions where state authority is minimal.

U.S. foreign policy shifts increase strategic uncertainty in Latin America. The Trump administration’s abrupt push for Ukraine peace talks, bypassing European allies and Kyiv, signals a potential U.S. pivot away from traditional security commitments. Latin American leaders are watching these developments closely, concerned that Washington’s shifting priorities could further reduce U.S. engagement in the region. If Latin America perceives declining U.S. interest in hemispheric security, nations could increasingly seek security and economic ties with China, Europe, and regional blocs.

Organized crime continues to expand in areas of weak governance. The failure of Latin American governments to effectively combat transnational criminal organizations remains a major long-term security risk. In Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala, cartel influence over trade and migration corridors is growing, raising concerns in Washington about potential escalations in cross-border violence.

Short-term risks include heightened economic uncertainty, political instability in Argentina, and worsening environmental crime. In the long term, the region is shifting toward a multipolar economic and security order, with U.S. influence in decline and regional actors asserting greater autonomy.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(18-02-2025)

The Americas remain in a period of significant geopolitical instability as economic, security, and diplomatic tensions continue to escalate. The deepening U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is accelerating regional economic fragmentation, while ongoing U.S. policy shifts—particularly Washington’s evolving stance on Ukraine and global security commitments—are raising concerns among Latin American nations. The expansion of organized crime, deforestation, and environmental degradation in the Amazon further exacerbate regional insecurity. Meanwhile, Argentina’s economic trajectory is at a critical juncture, with increased foreign interest tempered by a growing political scandal involving President Milei. These developments suggest that the Americas are undergoing a long-term restructuring, marked by declining U.S. influence, rising regional volatility, and a shift toward economic multipolarity.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings