Europe Faces Strategic Exclusion in U.S.-Russia Talks, Economic Deterioration, and Intensified Security Threats
The U.S.-Russia peace talks in Riyadh have intensified European fears of marginalization, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio leads negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov without European or Ukrainian participation. European leaders convened an emergency summit in Paris, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, to counterbalance Washington’s unilateral approach. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that he is prepared to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, but only under the condition of U.S. security guarantees. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk underscored the need for a strong European role, warning that an imposed settlement favoring Russian interests would be unacceptable.
Germany’s economic troubles deepen ahead of the February 23 elections, as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warns that Trump’s proposed tariffs on European goods could shrink Germany’s GDP by 1.5 percentage points over the next three years. The country’s industrial sector continues to struggle with high energy costs and fierce competition from China. Meanwhile, German cities face financial insolvency, with 37% unable to balance their budgets and nearly half relying on reserves. The economic downturn, coupled with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining momentum, risks further destabilizing Germany’s political landscape.
The U.S.-EU trade war escalates, as Washington threatens new tariffs on European agricultural products, prompting Brussels to explore countermeasures on U.S. imports. The European Commission is preparing a legal response to challenge the tariff hikes, but divisions remain among EU states over how aggressively to retaliate. If a full-scale trade conflict materializes, it could accelerate Europe’s economic slowdown and heighten financial uncertainty across the Eurozone.
Russian cyberattacks target Italy, with pro-Kremlin hacking group Noname057(16) launching coordinated strikes against banks and airports. The attack comes days after Italian President Sergio Mattarella compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Nazi Germany’s expansionism, a remark that enraged Moscow. While the attacks did not cause major disruptions, they signal a growing Russian hybrid warfare strategy aimed at destabilizing European states that maintain strong pro-Ukraine policies.
Ukraine remains under relentless Russian bombardment, with Moscow’s forces capturing Fyholivka in the Kharkiv region and launching drone and missile strikes on key infrastructure. Ukrainian officials report that Russia’s use of energy warfare has left over 100,000 civilians without power, worsening humanitarian conditions. President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for emergency Western aid to counter these attacks, but the Biden administration remains hesitant to commit additional military support.
Egypt and Cyprus sign a landmark energy deal, linking Cypriot offshore gas fields to Egyptian liquefaction plants for re-export to Europe. The agreement strengthens the Eastern Mediterranean’s role as an alternative energy hub amid Europe’s efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas. While the deal is a geopolitical win for Cairo and Nicosia, its long-term impact depends on how quickly the infrastructure can be operationalized and whether regional tensions, particularly with Turkey, interfere with its execution.
Swedish authorities convict four men of belonging to ISIS, as concerns over Islamist radicalization in Europe resurface. The suspects engaged in weapons training and recruitment activities for ISIS in Somalia, with Swedish intelligence monitoring their activities since 2023. The case highlights persistent jihadist threats in Europe, reinforcing calls for stronger counterterrorism cooperation among EU states.
Russia intensifies propaganda efforts in Germany, with intelligence reports revealing a Kremlin-backed network attempting to influence public opinion through staged protests and disinformation campaigns. German security agencies have increased monitoring efforts ahead of the elections, where Russian-linked political actors, including the AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, are expected to make significant gains.
As Europe navigates heightened geopolitical, economic, and security challenges, decisive leadership and strategic unity will be critical in shaping the continent’s future trajectory.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(18-02-2025)
Europe faces an escalating crisis on multiple fronts, as U.S.-Russia peace talks in Riyadh continue to sideline European interests, raising fears of a settlement that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty and European security. The economic landscape is growing more unstable, with Germany’s financial struggles and the deepening U.S.-EU trade war threatening prolonged stagnation. Meanwhile, security concerns mount as terrorist activity resurfaces, Russian hybrid warfare operations intensify, and Italy experiences a wave of cyberattacks linked to Moscow. European leaders must take decisive action to assert strategic autonomy, counter external pressures, and reinforce defense capabilities.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Europe Faces Strategic Exclusion in U.S.-Russia Talks, Economic Deterioration, and Intensified Security Threats - (18-02-2025)
- Europe Marginalized in U.S.-Russia Talks, Economic Struggles Deepen, and Security Threats Mount Amid Political Upheaval - (17-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Strategic Dilemmas as U.S.-Russia Talks Undermine Ukraine, Economic Instability Deepens, and Political Fragmentation Accelerates - (16-02-2025)
- Europe Faces U.S.-Russia Negotiation Crisis, Economic Turmoil, and Political Fragmentation Amid Ukraine War Stalemate - (15-02-2025)
- Europe Confronts Ukraine War Diplomacy Crisis, U.S. Trade Pressure, and Political Instability Amid Economic Decline - (14-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Ukraine War Stalemate, U.S. Trade Tensions, and Political Fragmentation Amid China's Diplomatic Moves - (13-02-2025)
- Europe Confronts Ukraine War Escalation, U.S. Tariff War, and Political Instability Amid Rising Security Threats - (12-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Heightened Geopolitical Strains as Ukraine War Intensifies, U.S. Trade Pressure Grows, and Political Divides Deepen - (11-02-2025)
