Global Risk Indexes (14-02-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 96 (+1 ▲)
Europe 97 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 96 (-2 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Trump's Gaza Displacement Plan Faces Fierce Global Opposition, Israel Mobilizes for War, and Iran Prepares for Nuclear Escalation

The Middle East is at a critical juncture, with diplomatic and military tensions escalating across multiple theaters. U.S. President Donald Trump has doubled down on his insistence that Jordan and Egypt will accept displaced Palestinians, despite both nations firmly rejecting the proposal. The move has drawn harsh criticism from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who called Trump's Gaza plan a 'threat to world peace,' signaling Ankara's increasing divergence from Washington's policies. Meanwhile, Israel has begun mobilizing troops for a potential renewed offensive in Gaza, despite Hamas signaling a willingness to continue ceasefire negotiations under Qatari and Egyptian mediation. In Lebanon, France has proposed sending U.N. peacekeepers, including French forces, to replace Israeli troops in the south, a move that has sparked diplomatic concerns over a possible military confrontation with Hezbollah. Iran has responded to the possibility of an Israeli preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities with defiant rhetoric, with President Pezeshkian warning that Tehran would rebuild '1,000 new sites' if attacked. The region's economic landscape is also shifting, as Saudi Arabia continues to reduce oil shipments to China, indicating a strategic energy realignment. The UAE has announced an ambitious 'Dubai Loop' project with Elon Musk's Boring Company, reinforcing its role as a global leader in high-tech infrastructure. Meanwhile, Syria's post-Assad government has launched a sweeping anti-corruption crackdown, targeting key business elites from the previous regime. Yemen's Houthis have issued a direct warning that any forced Palestinian displacement would provoke a military response, raising the risk of Red Sea disruptions. As the UAE positions itself as a global diplomatic power by offering to mediate Ukraine-Russia peace talks, MENA is undergoing rapid geopolitical transformations that will shape its trajectory in the coming months.

Trump's Gaza Displacement Plan: Worsening U.S.-Arab Relations

Trump's continued insistence that Jordan and Egypt will accept displaced Palestinians has triggered a fierce backlash, further straining Washington's relations with its Arab allies. Egyptian and Jordanian officials have categorically rejected the proposal, warning that any forced resettlement of Palestinians would destabilize their nations. Erdogan's condemnation of the plan signals that Turkey is aligning itself more closely with Arab states on the Palestinian issue, marking a shift in Ankara's regional positioning. If Trump persists with this policy, it could lead to a major diplomatic crisis that strengthens Iran's influence in the Arab world.

Israel's Military Mobilization: Countdown to a Renewed Gaza Offensive?

Netanyahu's decision to mobilize Israeli troops suggests that a renewed military operation in Gaza is imminent. Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations led by Qatar and Egypt, the Israeli government remains skeptical of Hamas' intentions. If hostilities resume, the conflict could quickly escalate beyond Gaza, drawing in Hezbollah or even Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Iraq. The timing of the military buildup, coinciding with U.S. pressure on Israel to finalize a ceasefire agreement, suggests that Netanyahu is preparing for all contingencies.

Iran's Nuclear Defiance: Preparing for Confrontation?

As speculation grows over an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program, Tehran is doubling down on its defiance. President Pezeshkian's warning that Iran would rebuild '1,000 nuclear sites' if attacked underscores Tehran's strategic posture of deterrence. This rhetoric is likely aimed at both deterring an Israeli attack and reassuring hardliners within Iran that the government remains committed to nuclear development. If diplomatic solutions fail, the region could be heading toward a dangerous escalation between Israel and Iran.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is entering a period of heightened instability, with multiple crises intensifying. Trump's Gaza displacement plan is causing serious diplomatic rifts with Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey, while Israel's military mobilization suggests that a renewed war in Gaza is likely. Iran is preparing for confrontation, both diplomatically and militarily, as tensions with Israel continue to build. Meanwhile, economic realignments'such as Saudi Arabia's shifting oil strategy and the UAE's growing influence in infrastructure and global diplomacy'highlight broader regional transformations. The coming days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can de-escalate these tensions or if the region is heading toward broader conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(14-02-2025)

The MENA region is entering a period of heightened geopolitical instability, with multiple crises escalating simultaneously. Trump has intensified pressure on Jordan and Egypt to accept displaced Palestinians, despite repeated refusals, deepening U.S.-Arab tensions. Erdogan has strongly condemned the Gaza displacement plan, positioning Turkey as a direct opponent of U.S. policy. Meanwhile, Israel has mobilized its military ahead of a potential renewed offensive in Gaza, even as Hamas signals a willingness to continue ceasefire talks under Egyptian and Qatari mediation. In Lebanon, France has proposed deploying U.N. peacekeepers, including French troops, in southern Lebanon to replace Israeli forces, sparking diplomatic concerns over a possible confrontation with Hezbollah. Iran has responded to the threat of an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities with defiant rhetoric, warning that any attack would result in Tehran rebuilding its nuclear program at an accelerated rate. Economically, Saudi Arabia has reduced oil shipments to China for the third consecutive month, reflecting shifts in Riyadh's energy strategy. The UAE has announced a futuristic 'Dubai Loop' transport project with Elon Musk's Boring Company, reinforcing its role as a leader in next-generation infrastructure. In Syria, the new government has launched an anti-corruption crackdown, freezing the assets of key Assad-era business figures, signaling an economic realignment. The Houthis in Yemen have escalated tensions by threatening military action if Palestinians are forcibly displaced from Gaza, raising the risk of Red Sea instability. Meanwhile, the UAE is positioning itself as a global diplomatic power by offering to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks. With conflicts brewing across Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, and the Red Sea, and economic realignments underway, the region is poised for a critical turning point.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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