Global Risk Indexes (24-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Financial Instability, and Security Standoffs Push the Americas into Deeper Crisis

The geopolitical landscape in the Americas is deteriorating further, with economic fragmentation, financial instability, and security tensions intensifying across the region. Today’s developments highlight the accelerating shift toward a multipolar economic order, rising financial uncertainty, and deepening U.S.-Mexico tensions.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is accelerating regional economic realignment. Mexico is advancing negotiations with European and Asian partners to reduce its dependence on U.S. trade, while Canada is actively pursuing alternatives to U.S. energy markets. Trump’s latest tariff measures have led to retaliatory economic strategies, further reducing North American economic cohesion. If this trend continues, the USMCA agreement may become strategically irrelevant, fundamentally reshaping North America’s economic framework.

Argentina’s financial crisis is worsening, with fears of a full-scale banking collapse. The Milei administration is facing its most severe test yet, as Argentina’s banking sector struggles with liquidity shortages and growing capital flight. The central bank’s emergency interventions have done little to restore confidence, and inflation continues to rise. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that Argentina’s economic situation could trigger broader regional financial instability.

Political tensions in Brazil escalate as Bolsonaro’s supporters mobilize. Protests are intensifying following Bolsonaro’s indictment, with right-wing groups calling for mass demonstrations in major cities. The Brazilian Supreme Court’s ruling against Bolsonaro’s political eligibility has further fueled unrest, increasing the likelihood of clashes between his supporters and law enforcement. The potential for long-term political destabilization remains high.

U.S.-Mexico security relations are deteriorating rapidly as Washington escalates counter-cartel operations. Reports indicate that the Trump administration is preparing expanded intelligence-sharing and covert operations targeting cartel leaders, raising alarm in Mexico. President Sheinbaum has condemned potential U.S. overreach, warning against unilateral security actions. If the U.S. takes direct military measures on Mexican territory, it could spark the worst diplomatic crisis between the two nations in decades.

China strengthens its economic foothold in Latin America as U.S. influence declines. Over the past week, Beijing has expanded trade and infrastructure agreements with Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, signaling a broader regional shift toward Chinese economic partnerships. With the U.S. increasingly focused on security issues rather than economic engagement, Latin American governments are accelerating efforts to diversify their trade and investment frameworks away from Washington’s influence.

Short-term risks include worsening financial instability in Argentina, growing political unrest in Brazil, and escalating U.S.-Mexico security tensions. In the long term, the Americas are transitioning into a fragmented geopolitical order characterized by declining U.S. influence, economic multipolarity, and sustained regional instability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(24-02-2025)

The Americas remain in a state of extreme geopolitical volatility as economic disruptions, financial crises, and security confrontations escalate. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to drive regional economic fragmentation, with Mexico and Canada accelerating trade diversification efforts. Argentina’s financial system is nearing a breaking point, as capital flight and liquidity shortages threaten to destabilize its banking sector. Meanwhile, political unrest in Brazil is escalating, as Bolsonaro’s supporters mobilize in response to his legal battles. The most immediate flashpoint remains the U.S.-Mexico security confrontation, with Washington intensifying its anti-cartel operations, heightening the risk of unilateral U.S. military action. Additionally, China’s deepening economic engagements with Latin America are reinforcing the region’s shift away from U.S.-led economic frameworks. These developments indicate a long-term geopolitical transformation in which U.S. influence is diminishing, while security risks and economic instability continue to rise.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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