Global Risk Indexes (24-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control

DRC’s conflict has reached catastrophic levels, with over 7,000 deaths reported since January and major cities falling to M23 rebels.

Prime Minister Judith Suminwa’s stark warning at the UN Human Rights Council underscores the unprecedented scale of the DRC crisis. With Goma and Bukavu now under M23 control, the humanitarian disaster is worsening, with reports of massacres, mass displacements, and the potential for the conflict to spread into neighboring countries. The Congolese government’s call for 'dissuasive sanctions' on Rwanda adds to the mounting international pressure on Kigali, which could face further diplomatic and economic isolation.

Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe worsens, as famine grips Darfur and the RSF consolidates its power in western regions.

The suspension of MSF’s operations in Zamzam camp highlights the deteriorating conditions for Sudan’s displaced populations. The RSF’s formation of a 'government of peace and unity' with allied political groups signals a further fragmentation of Sudan, making reconciliation efforts even more difficult. Egypt’s firm rejection of the RSF’s move suggests increasing regional polarization, with Cairo firmly backing the Sudanese army.

A deadly border clash between Ethiopian and Kenyan fishermen underscores the fragile security situation along the Omo River.

The death toll from the conflict highlights the broader issue of contested resources in East Africa. While the Ethiopian and Kenyan governments have pledged to de-escalate the situation, the dispute is symptomatic of deeper regional tensions over water rights, economic pressures, and ethnic divisions.

Nigeria’s aggressive stance on Binance is reshaping the financial landscape, with potential continent-wide implications.

With a $79.5 billion lawsuit against Binance, Nigeria is leading the charge against unregulated digital finance. The government’s claim that crypto exchanges facilitate capital flight and money laundering raises important questions about Africa’s financial sovereignty. The crackdown could inspire similar actions across the continent, impacting investment flows and fintech innovation.

South Africa’s economic landscape remains volatile, despite the rand strengthening against the dollar.

While the rand’s performance has been bolstered by external economic factors, South Africa continues to grapple with persistent challenges, including power outages, inflation concerns, and investor uncertainty. The government’s struggle to implement effective economic reforms raises concerns about long-term stability.

Morocco’s counterterrorism operation reveals the growing reach of jihadist networks, as Islamic State affiliates expand their footprint.

The dismantling of an IS-linked cell in Morocco underscores the increasing risks posed by Sahel-based jihadist groups. The discovery of weapons and explosives suggests that terrorist organizations are actively planning cross-border attacks, raising alarms for both North African and European security services.

Libya’s oil sector remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with rival factions competing for control.

Militias continue to exert influence over Libya’s energy resources, increasing the risk of renewed conflict and international intervention. The country’s fragmented governance structure poses a challenge for foreign investors seeking stability in North Africa’s largest oil producer.

Strategic Implications: The DRC’s escalating war, Sudan’s deepening famine, and the Ethiopia-Kenya border tensions highlight Africa’s growing security challenges. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s economic policies and South Africa’s financial volatility underscore the continent’s economic fragility. Morocco’s counterterrorism operation signals the expanding threat of jihadist groups, while Libya’s energy sector remains a battleground. These developments demand urgent diplomatic interventions, enhanced regional security cooperation, and economic policy adjustments to mitigate the risks of further destabilization.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(24-02-2025)

Africa’s geopolitical landscape is experiencing severe disruptions driven by armed conflicts, economic instability, and regulatory shifts. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) war continues to escalate, with mass casualties and heightened international pressure on Rwanda over its alleged support for M23 rebels. The border clash between Ethiopian and Kenyan fishermen adds a new dimension of localized conflicts, increasing instability in East Africa. Meanwhile, Nigeria's aggressive financial regulation efforts, particularly its crackdown on Binance, could reshape Africa’s approach to cryptocurrency and digital finance. South Africa’s economic landscape remains turbulent, with the rand strengthening despite internal economic fragility and mounting concerns over the country’s fiscal policies. In Sudan, the humanitarian crisis is deepening as famine conditions worsen and the army struggles against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Morocco’s counterterrorism operation reveals the growing reach of IS-linked jihadist cells in North Africa, while Libya’s oil sector remains a point of contention between rival factions. These events indicate that Africa is at a critical geopolitical inflection point, requiring urgent policy interventions, economic reforms, and diplomatic engagements to prevent further destabilization.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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