Africa’s Security Order and Economic Stability on Edge: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Battles Binance, and South Africa’s Budget Crisis Deepens
DRC’s security crisis has reached an inflection point, as Kinshasa faces growing instability amid worsening military setbacks.
The advance of M23 rebels into Uvira and surrounding areas highlights Kinshasa’s declining capacity to defend its eastern territories. The collapse of government control has prompted an exodus of civilians, as retreating Congolese troops engage in clashes with their former allies, the Wazalendo militia. The reported chaos—looting, abandoned military positions, and fleeing soldiers—demonstrates the state’s diminishing grip on security.
Religious leaders are pushing for an unprecedented peace dialogue, hoping to bring the government, rebels, and exiled opposition figures together.
With President Tshisekedi refusing to negotiate with M23, religious leaders from the Catholic and Protestant communities are taking the lead in diplomacy. Their efforts, backed by Kenya’s President William Ruto, represent a crucial shift in mediation tactics. However, Tshisekedi’s absence from key African diplomatic meetings, coupled with his international trips to Europe, has fueled accusations of detachment from domestic crises. Meanwhile, political instability in Kinshasa is increasing, with growing fears of a coup.
Nigeria is intensifying its regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrency, targeting Binance with a $79.5 billion lawsuit.
Accusing Binance of exacerbating currency instability and tax evasion, Nigerian authorities have detained two Binance executives and are seeking to enforce stricter financial oversight. This aggressive stance is part of a broader trend of African governments tightening control over digital financial markets, mirroring Kenya’s tax measures against fintech firms. The outcome of this legal battle could set a precedent for cryptocurrency regulation across the continent.
South Africa’s coalition government is struggling to maintain political stability, as disagreements over tax increases delay the national budget.
The last-minute postponement of the budget speech due to conflicts between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) exposes the fragility of South Africa’s governing coalition. Investor confidence has been shaken, with the rand weakening and government bonds declining. The proposed VAT increase, aimed at covering fiscal shortfalls, has triggered political resistance, particularly from labor unions. The crisis reflects deeper tensions in South Africa’s governance, with the possibility of further economic instability if coalition infighting continues.
Libya’s oil sector is sliding further into militia control, raising concerns over state fragmentation.
Militia-backed oil companies in eastern Libya continue to operate outside of the Tripoli government’s control. This increasing fragmentation of Libya’s resource wealth mirrors Sudan’s trajectory, where paramilitary forces are establishing parallel economic networks. The continued bypassing of Libya’s National Oil Corporation could lead to long-term instability, as rival factions seek control over lucrative energy assets.
Egypt is expanding its energy influence, securing deeper ties with European markets.
Cairo’s gas deals with Cyprus position Egypt as a critical energy supplier to the European Union, reducing dependence on Russian gas. This reinforces Egypt’s geopolitical leverage in the Mediterranean, especially in negotiations involving maritime energy routes.
Strategic Implications: The security vacuum in the DRC is deepening, with regional implications extending into Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda. Nigeria’s crackdown on Binance highlights the growing role of digital finance in Africa’s economic vulnerabilities, while South Africa’s political turmoil threatens investor confidence. Libya’s oil fragmentation and Egypt’s energy expansion underscore the shifting dynamics of Africa’s resource control. These developments necessitate urgent diplomatic engagement, stronger financial regulatory frameworks, and coordinated regional security strategies.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(20-02-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical landscape remains at a critical tipping point. The DRC war is intensifying into a full-blown regional crisis, as Kinshasa struggles to retain control of the east, and rebel forces encroach deeper into strategic cities. International diplomatic efforts are splintering, with religious leaders attempting to mediate a peace process, while the government remains resistant to dialogue. Nigeria’s aggressive legal battle against Binance signals an expansion of regulatory crackdowns on digital finance, exposing deeper economic vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, South Africa’s coalition politics threaten economic stability, as disagreements delay budget approvals, shaking investor confidence. Libya’s oil sector is moving toward a warlord-dominated economy, while Egypt is solidifying its role in the global energy market. Economic shifts in mining, gold, and cryptocurrency regulation further underscore Africa’s evolving financial landscape, making 2025 a defining year for governance, economic resilience, and security coordination.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Security Order and Economic Stability on Edge: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Battles Binance, and South Africa’s Budget Crisis Deepens - (20-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order Unraveling: The DRC on the Brink, Sudan’s Territorial Breakup, and Economic Crossroads - (19-02-2025)
- Africa’s Conflicts Deepen: DRC’s Regional War Risk, South Africa’s Energy Dilemma, and Sudan’s Humanitarian Collapse - (18-02-2025)
- DRC’s Regional War Risk, Uganda’s Political Crisis, and Africa’s Economic Struggles: Key Geopolitical Developments on February 17 - (17-02-2025)
- Africa's Regional Conflicts Escalate, Economic Strains Deepen, and Diplomatic Tensions Mount: Weekly Geopolitical Overview for February 16 - (16-02-2025)
- War in the Great Lakes Region, Uganda's Military Threat, and Economic Strains: Africa's Key Developments on February 15 - (15-02-2025)
- Africa's Reparations Push, DRC's Humanitarian Crisis, and Nigeria's Budget Shift: Key Geopolitical Developments on February 14 - (14-02-2025)
- Africa's Battle for Reparations, Mali's Mining Crisis, and South Africa's Diplomatic Rift: Key Geopolitical Developments on February 13 - (13-02-2025)
