Global Risk Indexes (24-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Geopolitical and Economic Fragmentation Accelerates: Trade Wars, Energy Supply Shocks, and Financial Volatility Define the New Era

The global economic landscape is rapidly evolving into a fractured system, where geopolitical rivalries, supply chain realignments, and financial instability are reshaping trade and investment flows. The escalation of U.S.-China economic hostilities, combined with mounting energy security risks and market volatility, underscores the shift toward a multipolar economic order.

U.S.-China Economic Hostilities Intensify: The Battle Over Trade, Technology, and Finance

The United States has taken further steps to tighten its economic confrontation with China. New restrictions on Chinese semiconductor and AI exports are reinforcing Washington’s strategy to limit Beijing’s access to advanced technologies. In response, China has expanded its financial decoupling strategy by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing yuan-based trade agreements with Russia and Middle Eastern nations.

Financial markets are closely watching these developments. The Chinese yuan has fallen to a five-year low against the U.S. dollar, reflecting concerns over capital outflows and China’s slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, U.S. bond yields are rising as China reduces its exposure to U.S. debt, raising concerns about future financing costs for Washington.

Energy Market Disruptions: Middle East and Central Asia in Focus

Global energy security remains under stress as supply disruptions and political instability shake key production zones. Iraq’s ongoing disputes with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) over oil revenue-sharing have halted key exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal, reducing available supply for European markets. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure remains at risk due to ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian-controlled oil routes, further tightening global crude availability.

China is adapting to these disruptions by accelerating its long-term energy partnerships with alternative suppliers. Recent agreements with Iran and Venezuela solidify Beijing’s strategy to circumvent Western-aligned energy markets. Meanwhile, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has increased stakes in Asian LNG infrastructure, reinforcing its position as a critical supplier for the coming decade.

Financial Markets React: Flight to Safety as Economic Uncertainty Grows

Investor sentiment continues to deteriorate as financial markets adjust to growing risks. Gold prices have surged past $3,150 per ounce, marking a new record high as investors seek protection against inflation, trade war disruptions, and market volatility. Central banks in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America, have intensified gold purchases, further driving demand.

Meanwhile, equity markets in both the U.S. and Europe have shown heightened volatility, with tech and manufacturing stocks under pressure due to fears of further trade restrictions. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it remains cautious on interest rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks and global financial uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Competition and Economic Realignments Define the New Global Order

The global economic landscape is shifting irreversibly toward fragmentation. As trade barriers rise, energy security becomes more volatile, and financial markets adjust to geopolitical uncertainty, businesses and investors must prepare for long-term structural changes. The days of seamless globalization are over, replaced by a system where strategic competition, regional economic blocs, and national security concerns dictate economic policy.

For corporations, investors, and policymakers, adaptability is now the key to resilience. Navigating supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks, and currency instability will require forward-looking strategies that account for the shifting balance of power in trade, energy, and finance.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(24-02-2025)

The global economic order is becoming increasingly fragile as U.S.-China hostilities expand beyond trade into financial and technological decoupling. Energy markets are facing growing instability, with geopolitical rivalries disrupting supply routes in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. Meanwhile, financial markets are adjusting to rising investor uncertainty, as the Chinese yuan weakens, gold surges past $3,150, and capital flows shift toward risk-averse assets. The intersection of economic nationalism, geopolitical fragmentation, and monetary policy divergence is accelerating the breakdown of globalization, with long-term consequences for trade, investment, and financial stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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