Global Risk Indexes (24-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Tensions Escalate: South China Sea Confrontations, Political Unrest in Bangladesh, and Economic Uncertainty in Southeast Asia

The Asia-Pacific region is facing a period of increasing geopolitical turbulence, as military confrontations, economic realignments, and political movements reshape the balance of power. South China Sea tensions are intensifying, domestic unrest is growing in Bangladesh, and economic uncertainty is spreading across Southeast Asia.

South China Sea: China Defends Naval Drills Near Australia and New Zealand

China has defended its recent naval drills near Australian and New Zealand waters, calling them routine exercises. However, both Canberra and Wellington view the drills as a direct challenge to regional security and an attempt by Beijing to expand its military influence in the Pacific. Australia has increased its maritime surveillance efforts, and New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters is engaging Beijing diplomatically to ease tensions.

These developments indicate that China is testing the limits of Western-aligned security frameworks in the Pacific, signaling a shift toward greater military assertiveness.

Bangladesh’s Growing Political Unrest: Student-Led Protests Challenge the Post-Hasina Government

Since Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in August 2024, Bangladesh has undergone a political transition, with the new government facing increasing public scrutiny. Student-led protests, initially focused on education policies, have evolved into a broader movement against governance issues, economic mismanagement, and declining civil liberties.

With the opposition gaining momentum and dissatisfaction growing over the new administration’s policies, there is increasing concern that Bangladesh could enter a period of prolonged political instability, potentially affecting regional trade and investor confidence.

Australia’s Strategic Trade Negotiations: Potential Exemptions from U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

The U.S. is reportedly considering granting Australia exemptions from Trump-era steel and aluminum tariffs, a move that would strengthen bilateral trade relations. This decision reflects Washington’s strategy to reinforce economic ties with key allies amid escalating tensions with China.

Should these exemptions be confirmed, they could set a precedent for other U.S. allies in the region to seek similar trade adjustments.

Myanmar-Russia Economic Alignment: Expanding Energy and Infrastructure Cooperation

Myanmar and Russia have deepened their economic ties, signing new agreements on energy cooperation and port infrastructure development. These deals highlight Moscow’s increasing engagement with Southeast Asia as it seeks alternative trade and investment partnerships amid Western sanctions.

This growing alignment between Myanmar’s military regime and Russia reflects broader geopolitical trends, as authoritarian governments coordinate to resist Western economic and diplomatic pressures.

North Korea’s Expanding Military Role: Supplying Ammunition to Russia

North Korea is reportedly supplying nearly half of Russia’s frontline ammunition used in the Ukraine conflict, marking a deepening military partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. This development signals that North Korea is playing an increasingly active role in global conflicts, raising concerns about its long-term strategic ambitions.

With Pyongyang strengthening its ties with Russia, there is a risk that North Korea could leverage this partnership to gain advanced military technologies and economic benefits.

Indonesia’s Economic and Social Challenges: Budget Cuts and Public Discontent

Indonesia is implementing severe budget cuts affecting social services, education, and survivor support programs, triggering public dissatisfaction. These austerity measures come at a time of economic uncertainty, with Jakarta seeking to maintain financial stability while addressing growing social concerns.

With public frustration mounting, there is a risk that economic dissatisfaction could translate into broader political unrest.

Thailand’s Economic Uncertainty: Slowing GDP Growth and Policy Shifts

Thailand’s economic slowdown is becoming a growing concern, with GDP growth forecasts revised downward. The government is adjusting interest rate policies to stimulate growth, but uncertainty remains high.

As regional economies adjust to shifting global trade patterns, Thailand’s economic trajectory will be closely watched as an indicator of broader Southeast Asian stability.

Looking Ahead: A Region at a Crossroads

The Asia-Pacific is facing overlapping military, economic, and political challenges, with no immediate resolution in sight. China’s military maneuvers, economic disruptions in Southeast Asia, and growing authoritarian alignments are contributing to an increasingly complex strategic environment.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(24-02-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing a convergence of security, economic, and political challenges. South China Sea tensions remain high, with China defending its expanded naval drills near Australia and New Zealand, signaling a growing challenge to Western-aligned security structures. Meanwhile, Bangladesh is witnessing significant political unrest, as student-led demonstrations evolve into a broader movement against the policies of the new government following Sheikh Hasina’s departure. The U.S. is recalibrating trade policies, with Australia potentially receiving exemptions from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, reflecting shifting economic alliances. Myanmar’s strengthening ties with Russia indicate an increasing alignment between authoritarian regimes, while North Korea’s deepening military cooperation with Moscow underscores its expanding role in global conflicts. Indonesia and Thailand are facing economic uncertainties, with Jakarta implementing severe budget cuts and Bangkok struggling with slowing GDP growth. As geopolitical rivalries, economic pressures, and domestic instabilities intensify, the risk of regional disruptions, diplomatic confrontations, and security crises remains at an elevated level.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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