Global Risk Indexes (23-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Financial Collapse, and Security Standoffs: The Americas at a Crossroads

The past week has revealed an Americas region in deep crisis, with economic fragmentation, financial instability, and security conflicts pushing the continent toward a more volatile geopolitical order. The trends observed over the last six days point to worsening structural risks that could reshape the region for years to come.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is no longer a temporary disruption—it is a permanent shift. The Trump administration’s escalating tariff war has pushed Mexico and Canada to pursue long-term diversification away from the U.S. market. Mexico has deepened trade ties with China and the EU, while Canada is aggressively seeking alternatives to the U.S. as its primary economic partner. The financial sector has taken notice, with Wall Street analysts warning that continued trade fragmentation will permanently weaken North America’s economic cohesion.

Argentina’s financial system is at risk of collapse. The country’s economic crisis has reached a dangerous new phase, as liquidity concerns spread to the banking sector. The collapse of a major investment fund tied to the $LIBRA cryptocurrency scandal has triggered a wave of withdrawals from Argentine banks, forcing the central bank to inject emergency liquidity. Meanwhile, inflation continues to rise, and investor confidence is deteriorating rapidly. If the banking crisis spirals further, Argentina could face a 2001-style financial meltdown.

Brazil’s political crisis is escalating into potential mass unrest. The indictment of former President Jair Bolsonaro for an alleged coup attempt has deeply polarized the country, with his right-wing supporters mobilizing for protests. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s congressional allies are attempting to rewrite electoral laws to enable his return to power. The risk of violent clashes is growing, and with elections approaching in 2026, Brazil’s democracy is entering a highly uncertain period.

U.S.-Mexico security relations are on the brink of collapse. The Trump administration’s decision to officially designate the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels as terrorist organizations has provoked the strongest diplomatic standoff between the U.S. and Mexico in decades. President Sheinbaum’s government has publicly rejected U.S. counterterrorism measures, but Washington is reportedly considering unilateral military action against cartel leaders. If the U.S. deploys special forces or conducts drone strikes on Mexican territory, it could trigger a full-blown diplomatic crisis, with long-term consequences for bilateral relations.

China is capitalizing on U.S. disengagement to deepen its economic control over Latin America. Over the past week, Beijing has signed new energy and infrastructure agreements with Argentina, Chile, and Brazil, further solidifying its role as the region’s key economic alternative to the United States. As Washington shifts its foreign policy priorities toward Ukraine and Russia negotiations, Latin America’s governments are increasingly looking to China as a strategic partner. This long-term geopolitical realignment is accelerating the decline of U.S. economic influence in the region.

The short-term risks include the potential for a financial collapse in Argentina, violent political unrest in Brazil, and a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Mexico security relations. In the long term, the region is moving toward a fragmented, multipolar order, marked by declining U.S. leverage, economic instability, and rising security risks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(23-02-2025)

The Americas remain in a state of sustained geopolitical crisis as trade wars, financial turmoil, and security conflicts deepen instability. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is now a structural disruption, pushing Mexico and Canada to strengthen economic ties with China and Europe, undermining North American integration. Argentina’s financial crisis has worsened significantly, with liquidity concerns spreading to its banking sector and fueling investor panic. Meanwhile, Brazil’s political landscape is growing more volatile, as Bolsonaro’s indictment for an attempted coup mobilizes right-wing groups and raises fears of civil unrest. The most immediate crisis, however, is the breakdown of U.S.-Mexico security relations, with Washington’s decision to label Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations sparking a diplomatic standoff that threatens to escalate into unilateral U.S. military action. Simultaneously, China continues to deepen its economic foothold in Latin America, benefiting from shifting U.S. foreign policy priorities. Taken together, these developments confirm that the region is in a long-term transition toward a fragmented, multipolar order, with declining U.S. influence and growing instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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