Global Risk Indexes (25-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Economic and Financial Decoupling Accelerates: Trade Wars, Energy Instability, and Market Volatility Reshape Global Economy

The global economic system is undergoing rapid fragmentation as trade wars, financial decoupling, and energy disruptions escalate. The latest moves by the U.S. and China signal that economic nationalism is deepening, with long-term consequences for supply chains, investment flows, and market stability.

U.S.-China Trade War Expands: Technology, Tariffs, and Financial Retaliation

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has expanded its trade war with China, targeting high-tech industries and critical supply chains. The latest restrictions on Chinese AI chip acquisitions are part of Washington’s broader strategy to curb Beijing’s technological advancements. In response, China has accelerated its push for semiconductor self-sufficiency and is forming deeper technological partnerships with Russia and Middle Eastern nations.

Meanwhile, Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on Vietnamese exports has triggered alarm among global investors. Vietnam has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S.-China trade war, absorbing manufacturing capacity displaced from China. A tariff escalation could force multinational corporations to reconsider supply chain realignments, potentially disrupting one of the world’s fastest-growing manufacturing hubs.

Energy Market Turbulence: Middle East and Central Asia in Focus

Oil markets remain volatile as geopolitical risks increase. The Trump administration has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, targeting Tehran’s ability to export crude to China and India. This move threatens to further tighten global oil supply, pushing Brent crude prices above $84 per barrel. Meanwhile, Turkey has expanded its gas import agreements with Turkmenistan, strengthening Ankara’s influence in Central Asia’s energy markets.

At the same time, Ukraine’s continued drone strikes on Russian-controlled pipelines have disrupted Kazakhstan’s energy exports, exacerbating supply chain vulnerabilities. These disruptions are forcing Europe to seek alternative crude sources from Africa and Latin America, reinforcing the long-term trend of energy market fragmentation.

Financial Markets React: Gold Soars as Investors Hedge Against Instability

Financial markets remain under pressure as geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive investor sentiment. Gold has surged to $3,200 per ounce, marking an all-time high as investors seek safe-haven assets. Central banks across emerging markets are continuing aggressive gold purchases, signaling a broader shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar amid fears of currency instability.

Meanwhile, South Korea has cut interest rates for the first time in two years, joining other central banks in adjusting monetary policy to counteract slowing growth. The rate cut has weakened the South Korean won, raising concerns about currency volatility across Asian markets.

Looking Ahead: The Long-Term Consequences of Economic Fragmentation

The global economy is shifting away from the integrated trade and financial system that defined the post-Cold War era. Supply chains are being restructured based on national security priorities rather than economic efficiency. Energy markets are fragmenting into competing geopolitical blocs. Financial markets are adjusting to increasing government intervention and rising geopolitical risks.

For investors, corporations, and policymakers, this new era will require adaptability. Supply chain diversification, risk management strategies, and geopolitical intelligence will be essential for navigating economic uncertainty. The coming months will be defined by ongoing trade conflicts, resource competition, and financial market turbulence.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(25-02-2025)

The global economy is entering a period of extreme instability as U.S.-China trade and technology conflicts escalate, energy security risks rise, and financial markets struggle to adjust to shifting monetary policies. The increasing use of protectionist trade measures, such as Trump’s proposed tariffs on Vietnam, signals a deeper fragmentation of global supply chains. Meanwhile, gold continues to surge as investors flee from riskier assets amid concerns over geopolitical uncertainty and financial instability. Energy markets remain volatile, with U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil sector further tightening global crude supply. As trade and financial decoupling accelerate, the world is rapidly shifting toward a fragmented economic order defined by national security interests rather than free-market efficiency.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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