Global Risk Indexes (25-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Faces Heightened Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China AI Battle, South China Sea Escalations, and Vietnam’s Economic Uncertainty

The Asia-Pacific region is at the center of an escalating geopolitical contest, as military tensions, economic shifts, and political crises define the strategic landscape. The U.S.-China rivalry is deepening in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, South China Sea flashpoints continue to intensify, and Vietnam faces a new economic challenge as Washington considers sweeping tariffs.

U.S.-China AI and Semiconductor Confrontation: Beijing Ramps Up Nvidia Chip Orders

China has dramatically increased its purchases of Nvidia’s H20 AI chips, attempting to stockpile advanced semiconductors before potential new U.S. export controls take effect. Washington is reportedly considering additional restrictions, reflecting growing concerns over China’s AI and semiconductor self-sufficiency.

With both sides doubling down on technological competition, the semiconductor battle is becoming a major driver of U.S.-China strategic decoupling, reshaping global supply chains and economic alliances.

South China Sea: U.S., Australia, and New Zealand Closely Monitor Chinese Naval Activity

The U.S. Coast Guard, alongside Australia and New Zealand, is intensifying surveillance of Chinese naval maneuvers amid increased aggression in disputed waters. Beijing’s latest maritime activities suggest a strategy to test Western military responses and reinforce territorial claims.

With South China Sea tensions rising, regional allies are expanding joint defense coordination, preparing for potential future confrontations.

Vietnam’s Economic Uncertainty: U.S. Considers Tariffs That Could Reshape Regional Trade

Vietnam is facing a serious economic challenge as the U.S. considers sweeping new tariffs on Vietnamese exports, including steel, furniture, and electronics. If enacted, these tariffs could disrupt Vietnam’s export-driven economy and force Hanoi to seek alternative markets.

Vietnam has played a key role in global supply chains as companies diversify away from China, but a U.S. tariff shift could complicate its economic trajectory.

North Korea’s Expanding Role in Global Conflicts: Reports of Troop Deployments to Ukraine

New intelligence suggests that North Korea may be sending troops to support Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, further deepening Pyongyang’s partnership with Moscow. This comes after reports that North Korea is supplying Russia with nearly half of its frontline ammunition.

With Pyongyang aligning itself more closely with Russia, concerns are growing that North Korea could gain advanced military technologies in return, further destabilizing the Korean Peninsula.

Taiwan’s Security Challenges: Chinese-Linked Vessel Suspected of Cutting Undersea Cables

A Taiwan-owned communications company has reported that a Chinese-linked cargo ship is suspected of severing undersea internet cables, disrupting connectivity to Taiwan’s outlying islands. This incident raises fresh concerns over China’s potential use of hybrid warfare tactics to weaken Taiwan’s security.

With growing cyber and infrastructure threats, Taiwan is expected to bolster its security measures to counter Chinese influence operations.

South Korea’s Political Crisis: President Yoon Suk Yeol Awaits Final Impeachment Ruling

South Korea’s Constitutional Court is set to issue a final ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment case, a development that could have profound implications for the country’s political stability.

The outcome will determine whether Yoon remains in office or is removed, a scenario that could trigger new elections and reshape South Korea’s domestic and foreign policies.

Indonesia-Apple Deal: Jakarta Lifts iPhone Ban in Exchange for $1 Billion Investment

Indonesia has lifted its ban on Apple’s iPhone 16 following negotiations for a $1 billion investment agreement. Apple’s commitment to expanding operations in Indonesia highlights Jakarta’s growing importance in the global tech supply chain.

This deal signals a strategic shift in Indonesia’s approach to foreign investment, positioning the country as a key player in regional technology and manufacturing.

Looking Ahead: A Region at the Center of Global Power Shifts

The Asia-Pacific remains the primary theater for economic competition, military rivalries, and strategic realignments. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether tensions stabilize or escalate into broader conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(25-02-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region remains at a critical geopolitical inflection point, as military, economic, and political tensions continue to escalate. The South China Sea is witnessing increased strategic competition, with China’s naval maneuvers drawing close monitoring from the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. Meanwhile, China is intensifying its push for AI and semiconductor self-sufficiency, ordering large quantities of Nvidia chips while Washington considers further restrictions. Vietnam is facing new economic uncertainty, with the U.S. weighing sweeping tariffs that could impact its export-driven growth model. North Korea’s deepening partnership with Russia has raised fresh concerns, with reports suggesting that Pyongyang may be deploying troops to Ukraine. Additionally, Taiwan is facing new security risks, as a Chinese-linked cargo vessel is suspected of damaging undersea cables. South Korea’s internal political crisis is deepening, with President Yoon Suk Yeol awaiting a final impeachment ruling. Amid these developments, economic realignments are also reshaping the regional order, with Malaysia attracting record foreign investments while Indonesia negotiates a major Apple deal. With these overlapping military, economic, and political pressures, the risk of strategic miscalculation, economic fragmentation, and regional instability remains dangerously high.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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