Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms
The DRC war is entering a new, more dangerous phase, as Kinshasa faces military disarray and political instability.
New reports indicate that M23 is not only securing territory but also establishing governance structures, raising concerns about a long-term insurgent-controlled zone in eastern Congo. This deepens the crisis for Kinshasa, which is already struggling with a deteriorating military situation. Political instability in the capital is rising, with increasing speculation over the government’s ability to maintain unity. The risk of a coup or major political shift in the coming months is increasing.
Rwanda faces growing international scrutiny, with new diplomatic moves to isolate Kigali over its support for M23.
The UNSC’s latest resolution condemning Rwanda has gained traction among Western powers, increasing the likelihood of targeted sanctions. Regional isolation for Rwanda is also growing, with Burundi and Uganda reassessing their engagement with Kigali. This marks a pivotal moment for Rwanda’s international positioning, as economic and diplomatic repercussions could escalate.
The Ethiopia-Kenya border dispute over fishing rights remains unresolved, raising the risk of further localized conflicts.
Despite pledges from both governments to de-escalate, tensions remain high along the Omo River. The dispute highlights broader issues of natural resource control in East Africa, where water access is becoming an increasingly contentious geopolitical issue. If unresolved, the conflict could expand into a larger regional flashpoint.
Nigeria’s economic crackdown is expanding beyond Binance, as regulators tighten controls on financial markets.
In addition to the Binance lawsuit, Nigerian authorities are increasing scrutiny on fintech platforms, aiming to curb capital flight and currency speculation. The move signals a broader shift in economic policy that could reshape Africa’s digital finance landscape. While intended to stabilize the naira, these measures could deter investment in Nigeria’s growing fintech sector.
South Africa’s economic fragility persists, despite temporary gains in the currency markets.
The strengthening rand is driven by external economic factors rather than domestic stability. Power shortages, fiscal policy uncertainty, and political tensions within the ruling coalition continue to undermine confidence in South Africa’s economic direction.
Libya’s oil sector remains a source of conflict, with competing factions deepening control over energy infrastructure.
The latest reports suggest that armed groups linked to Khalifa Haftar are tightening their hold on key oil-producing regions. The continued fragmentation of Libya’s energy market increases the risk of renewed violence and foreign intervention.
Strategic Implications: The DRC’s deteriorating situation, Rwanda’s growing isolation, and Nigeria’s economic crackdown are shaping Africa’s immediate geopolitical and economic outlook. The Ethiopian-Kenyan border dispute and Libya’s oil struggles highlight the broader competition over natural resources. Meanwhile, Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe demands urgent intervention to prevent mass famine. These developments require coordinated diplomatic actions, security interventions, and economic stabilization policies to mitigate further destabilization.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(25-02-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical instability remains at critical levels, driven by escalating conflicts, economic struggles, and shifting diplomatic alignments. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing further military setbacks, with reports of M23 consolidating control over strategic territories and Kinshasa struggling to maintain national unity. Rwanda faces mounting international pressure, while Burundi’s refugee crisis continues to strain humanitarian resources. The Ethiopian-Kenyan border conflict remains unresolved, highlighting regional tensions over natural resources. Nigeria’s financial crackdown on cryptocurrency is expanding, while South Africa’s economic fragility persists despite temporary gains in the rand. In North Africa, Morocco’s counterterrorism efforts reveal growing jihadist networks, and Libya’s oil sector continues to be a geopolitical battleground. As Sudan’s civil war fragments further, famine risks grow, deepening humanitarian crises. These developments underscore the urgent need for diplomatic coordination, economic stabilization efforts, and regional security cooperation.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
- Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control - (24-02-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: DRC’s War Escalates, Economic Crackdowns Reshape Markets, and Regional Alliances Shift - (23-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Conflict Escalates, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Rwanda Faces UNSC Condemnation - (22-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military Crisis, Rwanda-DRC Tensions, Nigeria’s Binance Crackdown, and Economic Realignments - (21-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order and Economic Stability on Edge: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Battles Binance, and South Africa’s Budget Crisis Deepens - (20-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order Unraveling: The DRC on the Brink, Sudan’s Territorial Breakup, and Economic Crossroads - (19-02-2025)
- Africa’s Conflicts Deepen: DRC’s Regional War Risk, South Africa’s Energy Dilemma, and Sudan’s Humanitarian Collapse - (18-02-2025)
