Global Risk Indexes (26-02-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Wars, Financial Contagion, and Security Clashes Continue to Reshape the Americas’ Geopolitical Order

The Americas remain in a state of heightened geopolitical instability, with deepening economic fragmentation, escalating political tensions, and deteriorating U.S.-Mexico security relations. Today’s developments highlight the region’s accelerating transition toward a multipolar economic and security structure.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is driving a permanent restructuring of North American economic relationships. With Washington continuing its aggressive tariff policies, Mexico and Canada are finalizing trade realignment strategies. Mexico has expanded its trade agreements with China and the EU, while Canada is increasing energy exports to Asian markets. These moves are signaling a broader structural shift away from U.S.-centric trade policies, reducing Washington’s long-term economic leverage in the region.

Argentina’s financial crisis worsens as banking contagion fears grow. The liquidity crisis continues to spread beyond Buenos Aires, with several regional banks now experiencing severe cash shortages. The Milei administration’s emergency stabilization measures have failed to stop capital flight, while inflation rates remain dangerously high. Investor confidence is collapsing, raising the risk of a systemic banking failure with ripple effects across South America.

Bolsonaro’s political crisis is deepening as right-wing mobilization accelerates. His supporters are intensifying nationwide protests, with reports of planned blockades and disruptive actions in major cities. Meanwhile, Brazil’s political opposition is pushing for stricter legal actions, creating a highly volatile environment that could result in clashes between opposing political factions. The potential for prolonged political unrest is increasing.

U.S.-Mexico security relations continue to unravel as Washington expands counter-cartel operations. U.S. intelligence agencies are increasing their presence in Mexico, conducting expanded surveillance and financial tracking of cartel networks. Reports suggest that Washington is considering direct kinetic operations against high-value cartel targets, a move that could trigger a severe diplomatic crisis with Mexico. President Sheinbaum has warned against U.S. unilateral military action, but diplomatic tensions are reaching their highest levels in decades.

China is solidifying its economic presence in Latin America as U.S. engagement weakens. Beijing has secured new infrastructure and energy agreements with multiple Latin American governments, reinforcing its position as a key economic player in the region. As the U.S. shifts its focus toward security and counterterrorism policies, Latin America’s economic strategies are increasingly aligning with China’s long-term investment priorities.

Short-term risks include worsening financial instability in Argentina, escalating political violence in Brazil, and deepening U.S.-Mexico diplomatic tensions. In the long term, the Americas are shifting toward a fragmented geopolitical order, with rising security volatility and sustained regional instability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(26-02-2025)

The geopolitical instability in the Americas remains at an extreme level, with economic fragmentation, political unrest, and security crises deepening across the region. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is further eroding North American economic integration, as Mexico and Canada strengthen their long-term shift toward alternative trade partners. Argentina’s financial sector remains under severe strain, with banking instability spreading and inflationary pressures worsening. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s supporters in Brazil continue their nationwide mobilization, raising concerns about prolonged political instability. The most immediate flashpoint remains the U.S.-Mexico security standoff, as Washington escalates its counter-cartel operations and intelligence activities, increasing the risk of unilateral U.S. military action. Additionally, China’s growing economic and infrastructure investments in Latin America are reinforcing the region’s geopolitical realignment away from U.S.-led financial and security frameworks. These trends confirm that the Americas are undergoing a long-term transition into a multipolar order marked by declining U.S. influence and sustained security volatility.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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