Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms
The DRC conflict is reaching a new phase, with discussions of a regional military intervention.
As M23 consolidates its control over key cities and infrastructure, the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are considering a military presence in eastern DRC. This marks a shift in regional engagement, signaling the potential for a broader intervention. The key questions remain: will Rwanda accept this deployment, and can regional forces operate without exacerbating tensions?
Rwanda faces fresh diplomatic isolation, as the UK imposes new sanctions over its alleged support for M23.
London’s move to pause bilateral aid, review export licenses, and coordinate with allies for additional sanctions intensifies pressure on Kigali. This escalation mirrors the European Union’s recent moves and could push Rwanda to deepen its regional alliances or seek new economic partnerships.
Nigeria’s energy sector is in turmoil following a $380 million legal ruling against its LNG industry.
The ruling in favor of Vitol and Glencore exposes Nigeria’s energy sector to legal and financial risks. With NLNG covering 5% of global supply, any instability in Nigeria’s energy exports could ripple through global markets, especially as European countries seek alternatives to Russian gas.
Africa’s economic struggles are worsening as debt servicing costs rise.
The UNDP report highlights that 56 developing nations are facing unsustainable debt burdens, with some spending over 20% of revenue on interest payments. African countries are increasingly looking at domestic financing mechanisms, but structural weaknesses and low savings rates make this a challenging path forward.
Morocco’s telecom leadership change signals strategic shifts in its regional ambitions.
Mohamed Benchaaboun’s appointment as chair of Maroc Telecom comes amid a period of regulatory pressure and fines. This leadership change may signal a shift in Morocco’s approach to telecom expansion across West Africa, with potential geopolitical implications in digital infrastructure.
The global lithium market downturn forces strategic reevaluations in South Africa’s mining sector.
Sibanye Stillwater’s decision to exit the Rhyolite Ridge lithium project highlights the volatility of the global battery metals market. As electric vehicle production fluctuates, African mining companies must navigate uncertain demand and fluctuating commodity prices.
South Africa’s economic instability continues as inflation concerns mount.
With global trade tensions and potential VAT hikes, the South African Reserve Bank warns of worsening economic conditions. This adds pressure on policymakers to balance fiscal stability with social demands.
Strategic Implications: The DRC crisis is now at a critical juncture, with the possibility of regional intervention escalating tensions. Nigeria’s economic and energy struggles could shape Africa’s financial future, while Morocco and Algeria continue to vie for regional influence. Africa’s debt crisis presents long-term economic risks, requiring urgent policy responses. These developments call for strategic coordination among African governments to navigate an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(26-02-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk remains high as conflicts, economic instability, and strategic resource struggles intensify. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is witnessing an evolving military situation, with the M23 insurgency gaining further ground, prompting discussions of regional military intervention. Rwanda faces growing Western sanctions over its role in the DRC conflict. Nigeria’s legal battle over liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply failures exposes vulnerabilities in Africa’s energy sector, while its economic landscape continues to shift with GDP growth and financial policy changes. Morocco and Algeria position themselves for strategic influence in energy and trade. Meanwhile, Africa’s debt crisis and struggles to mobilize domestic financial resources threaten economic sovereignty. These developments necessitate enhanced diplomatic engagements, economic stabilization strategies, and regional security coordination to mitigate further destabilization.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms - (26-02-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
- Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control - (24-02-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: DRC’s War Escalates, Economic Crackdowns Reshape Markets, and Regional Alliances Shift - (23-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Conflict Escalates, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Rwanda Faces UNSC Condemnation - (22-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military Crisis, Rwanda-DRC Tensions, Nigeria’s Binance Crackdown, and Economic Realignments - (21-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order and Economic Stability on Edge: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Battles Binance, and South Africa’s Budget Crisis Deepens - (20-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order Unraveling: The DRC on the Brink, Sudan’s Territorial Breakup, and Economic Crossroads - (19-02-2025)
