Global Risk Indexes (26-02-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific on Edge: China Pressures Philippines, Taiwan Faces Hybrid Threats, and North Korea Expands Military Buildup

The Asia-Pacific region is at a critical geopolitical juncture, with growing military posturing, economic uncertainty, and political instability defining the current landscape. China is pressuring the Philippines to withdraw U.S. missile systems, Taiwan is facing increased hybrid threats, and North Korea’s military expansion is accelerating.

South China Sea: China Demands Removal of U.S. Missiles from the Philippines

China has demanded that the Philippines remove the U.S.-deployed “Typhon” intermediate-range missile system from the South China Sea, accusing Manila of breaking previous commitments. Chinese state media has framed this as an act of provocation, further heightening tensions in the region.

Manila has not officially responded, but with growing U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation, China is likely to increase diplomatic and military pressure in the coming weeks.

Taiwan’s Hybrid Threats: Another Undersea Cable Severed

Taiwan has reported another severed undersea communications cable, with a Chinese-linked cargo ship suspected of involvement. This is the fifth such incident in a year, raising concerns over China’s use of hybrid warfare tactics to weaken Taiwan’s infrastructure.

Beijing has denied involvement, calling Taiwan’s accusations “political manipulation.” However, Taipei has increased surveillance and military patrols to counter further disruptions.

North Korea’s Military Expansion: Kim Jong Un Emphasizes Combat Readiness

Kim Jong Un has ordered the modernization of North Korea’s military academies, calling for a “strong, modern army” to prepare for potential conflicts. This follows reports that North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia to support its war in Ukraine.

South Korean intelligence suggests that North Korea is using these deployments to gain battlefield experience and access to advanced Russian military technology, which could be used against Seoul in future conflicts.

Cook Islands Political Instability: China’s Influence Sparks Tensions with New Zealand

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has survived a no-confidence vote after striking a strategic partnership with China. The deal has raised concerns in New Zealand, which fears Beijing’s growing influence in the Pacific.

Despite Brown’s victory, the opposition remains vocal, and the controversy could impact future diplomatic and security arrangements in the region.

South Korea Seeks U.S. Tariff Exemptions Amid Political Crisis

South Korea’s Industry Minister is in Washington seeking an exemption from U.S. steel tariffs, as concerns grow over trade disruptions. The political crisis in Seoul, with President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial ongoing, has weakened South Korea’s negotiating position.

With South Korean business leaders bypassing the government to engage with U.S. policymakers directly, Seoul’s ability to manage trade relations with Washington is under strain.

Hong Kong’s Economic Struggles: Fiscal Austerity and AI Investment

Hong Kong has announced drastic spending cuts, including a 10,000-job reduction in its civil service, in an effort to curb its rising fiscal deficit. At the same time, the city is increasing investments in artificial intelligence, aligning with Beijing’s broader push for technological self-sufficiency.

With the U.S. imposing new tariffs on Hong Kong and China, the city’s economic outlook remains uncertain.

South Korea’s Birth Rate Increases for First Time in Nine Years

In a rare positive development, South Korea’s fertility rate has increased for the first time in nearly a decade. Government incentives, corporate policies, and shifting societal attitudes have contributed to the rise.

However, at 0.75, South Korea’s birth rate remains the lowest in the world, posing long-term economic and demographic challenges.

Looking Ahead: A Region Facing Simultaneous Military and Economic Pressures

The Asia-Pacific remains at high risk of military escalation, economic disruptions, and strategic realignments. The coming weeks will be critical in determining how these developments unfold.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(26-02-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing intensifying geopolitical turbulence, with growing military threats, economic disruptions, and political instability across multiple nations. The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, as China pressures the Philippines to remove U.S. missile systems while expanding its naval presence. Taiwan faces increased hybrid threats, including another severed undersea communications cable, as China intensifies both physical and psychological pressure on the island. North Korea’s military buildup is accelerating, with Kim Jong Un emphasizing combat readiness amid reports of troop deployments to Russia. Meanwhile, political instability in the Cook Islands has exposed deeper fractures in the Pacific, as New Zealand reacts to China’s growing influence in the region. Economically, South Korea is seeking exemptions from U.S. steel tariffs amid its worst political crisis in decades, while Hong Kong is imposing drastic spending cuts to combat a growing fiscal deficit. South Korea’s modest increase in birth rates has provided a rare positive demographic shift, but structural concerns remain. As these developments unfold, the risk of strategic miscalculation, economic realignment, and regional military escalations remains at a dangerously high level.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings