Global Risk Indexes (26-02-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Brink: West Bank Tensions Rise, Israel Strikes Syria, and Regional Powers Maneuver for Influence

The Middle East is entering a new phase of escalating conflict and shifting alliances. Israel’s military entrenchment in the West Bank has intensified, with mass displacements and direct clashes signaling a prolonged security operation. Meanwhile, the fragile Gaza ceasefire is once again at risk, as disputes over prisoner releases and hostage handovers delay progress. Israel’s latest airstrikes in Syria have heightened tensions, with military installations south of Damascus targeted as part of a broader effort to curb potential threats. In parallel, Russia and Iran are deepening their strategic coordination, particularly on nuclear and regional security matters. Iraq has secured a major oil deal with BP to boost Kirkuk’s production, a move that could shift regional energy dynamics and draw increased geopolitical scrutiny. On the diplomatic front, Egypt and Arab states are reinforcing their stance against Trump's Gaza displacement plan, preparing countermeasures ahead of the upcoming Arab League summit. Economic uncertainties persist, with oil markets fluctuating amid mixed signals on global demand and supply disruptions. With multiple flashpoints intensifying, the region is edging closer to a broader crisis.

West Bank Conflict: Israel Expands Military Presence

The situation in the West Bank is rapidly deteriorating as Israeli military operations in Jenin and Tulkarm expand, with thousands of Palestinians displaced. Israeli forces are systematically demolishing refugee camps, signaling a long-term occupation strategy. Armed Palestinian resistance is increasing, and international condemnation is mounting, with concerns that these actions could trigger a full-scale uprising.

Gaza Ceasefire at Risk as Mediation Stalls

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is under renewed pressure. Hamas has agreed to a mediated solution on prisoner and hostage exchanges, but Israel has yet to approve the final terms. If this impasse continues, a return to conflict in Gaza remains a serious possibility.

Israeli Airstrikes Intensify in Syria

Israel has launched a new wave of airstrikes targeting military positions in Kisweh and Daraa, south of Damascus. Israeli officials have warned that they will not allow Syria to become a new base for hostile forces. These strikes mark the latest in a series of escalations as Israel enforces its new security doctrine.

Iran and Russia Strengthen Diplomatic Coordination

Iran and Russia have reaffirmed their strategic alignment, particularly on nuclear and regional security issues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Tehran signals deeper cooperation between the two nations as they seek to counterbalance U.S. and Western influence.

BP’s $25 Billion Oil Deal in Iraq Reshapes Energy Landscape

Iraq has signed a massive oil agreement with BP to redevelop four Kirkuk oil fields. The deal, valued at $25 billion, is expected to increase production capacity significantly over the next few years. However, this development will attract scrutiny from both the U.S. and Iran, as energy security remains a key geopolitical battleground.

Arab States Prepare Countermeasures Against Trump’s Gaza Plan

Egypt and key Arab states are coordinating efforts to counter Trump’s controversial plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza. An emergency Arab League summit set for March 4 is expected to propose alternative strategies to challenge U.S. policies.

Oil Markets React to Mixed Global Signals

Oil prices have fluctuated amid conflicting economic signals, with Brent crude rebounding from two-month lows. Concerns over potential Russian sanctions relief and U.S. economic uncertainties continue to shape market trends.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East remains on a dangerous trajectory, with major conflict zones intensifying. The West Bank is now a prolonged military occupation zone, the Gaza ceasefire is under threat, and Israel’s airstrikes in Syria have raised regional tensions. Diplomatic shifts are also in motion, with Iran and Russia strengthening ties while Arab states push back against U.S. policies in Gaza. Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil developments could trigger new geopolitical frictions. With multiple active flashpoints, the coming days will be critical in determining whether the region spirals into wider conflict or finds a temporary diplomatic balance.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(26-02-2025)

The Middle East remains at an extreme level of geopolitical risk, with multiple crises escalating simultaneously. Israeli military operations in the West Bank continue to expand, with mass displacements and increased clashes, signaling a shift toward long-term occupation. In Gaza, the ceasefire is nearing a critical point as mediators struggle to finalize hostage and prisoner exchanges. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified its airstrikes in Syria, directly targeting military installations and reinforcing its new security doctrine against the country's Islamist-led government. Iran and Russia have further aligned their regional strategies, particularly regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In Iraq, BP’s new $25 billion oil deal to boost Kirkuk’s production could alter regional energy balances while attracting U.S. and Iranian scrutiny. Egypt and Arab states remain firm in their rejection of Trump’s Gaza displacement plan, preparing countermeasures ahead of a key Arab League summit. Economic uncertainty continues, with oil markets fluctuating due to conflicting global signals. With active military escalations, diplomatic tensions, and major economic realignments, the region stands on the edge of further instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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