Global Risk Indexes (02-03-2025)

Global 99 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Decoupling, Financial Collapse Risks, and Security Standoffs Reshape the Americas’ Geopolitical Landscape

The Americas experienced a week of deepening economic fragmentation, worsening financial instability, and escalating security tensions, confirming that the region is entering a new phase of geopolitical realignment. The key developments over the past seven days indicate that North American economic decoupling, South American financial crises, and rising security volatility will define the region’s future trajectory.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war has solidified economic fragmentation. Over the past week, Mexico and Canada have finalized long-term trade agreements with China and the EU, signaling an irreversible shift away from U.S.-dominated trade structures. Mexico’s integration into Chinese supply chains for key industries—including energy, technology, and manufacturing—represents a strategic transformation of North American trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Canada’s deepening trade relations with Asia and Latin America further reduce Washington’s influence over regional economic flows.

Argentina’s financial system is facing imminent collapse. The banking crisis has worsened dramatically, with multiple financial institutions imposing withdrawal limits and capital flight accelerating at an alarming rate. The Milei administration’s attempts to negotiate emergency international funding have failed to restore investor confidence, and inflation remains dangerously high. If the crisis is not contained, Argentina risks a systemic financial meltdown with spillover effects across South America.

Brazil’s political crisis is escalating toward potential institutional fractures. Bolsonaro’s supporters have intensified their mobilization efforts, with growing reports of planned blockades and disruptions to national infrastructure. Additionally, segments of Brazil’s security forces are showing signs of internal division, as some military and law enforcement officials express tacit support for Bolsonaro’s movement. The risk of violent clashes between Bolsonaro loyalists and state security forces is rising, increasing the likelihood of long-term political instability.

U.S.-Mexico relations have deteriorated to their lowest point in decades. Over the past week, intelligence leaks have revealed that Washington is actively preparing targeted military operations against cartel leaders, raising the possibility of unilateral U.S. military action on Mexican territory. President Sheinbaum has warned of severe diplomatic consequences if the U.S. proceeds with direct military intervention. If Washington escalates its counter-cartel operations, it could trigger the most severe diplomatic rift between the two countries in modern history.

China continues to expand its influence in Latin America, capitalizing on U.S. strategic shifts. Over the past week, Beijing has secured major energy and infrastructure agreements in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, reinforcing its long-term economic presence in the region. As Washington focuses increasingly on security and counterterrorism, Latin American nations are prioritizing economic integration with China, accelerating the region’s geopolitical realignment away from U.S.-led financial structures.

Short-term risks include the potential for financial collapse in Argentina, escalating political violence in Brazil, and a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Mexico security relations. In the long term, the Americas are transitioning toward a fragmented geopolitical order characterized by economic multipolarity, increasing security volatility, and declining U.S. regional dominance.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(02-03-2025)

Geopolitical instability across the Americas remains at an extreme level as economic fragmentation, financial turmoil, and security tensions deepen across multiple fronts. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war has become a long-term structural shift, pushing Mexico and Canada to consolidate trade relationships with China and the EU, weakening North American economic integration. Argentina’s financial system is in a state of crisis, with liquidity shortages escalating into full-scale banking restrictions, increasing the likelihood of systemic economic collapse. Meanwhile, Brazil’s political crisis is intensifying as Bolsonaro’s supporters expand their mobilization efforts, raising the risk of mass protests and potential institutional fractures. U.S.-Mexico relations have deteriorated significantly, with Washington actively preparing counter-cartel military operations, bringing the risk of direct U.S. military action into Mexico to its highest level in decades. Additionally, China continues to strengthen its economic foothold in Latin America, accelerating the region’s shift away from U.S.-led economic and financial structures. These trends confirm that the Americas are undergoing a fundamental geopolitical transition, marked by increasing security volatility, economic uncertainty, and declining U.S. regional dominance.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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