Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is at the epicenter of Africa’s growing security crisis, with the risk of regional military entanglement rising.
As M23 consolidates its hold over key urban centers, the conflict is moving towards a broader geopolitical confrontation. The recent explosions in Bukavu have escalated tensions, with Kinshasa blaming Rwandan-backed forces and M23 retaliating against government positions. Diplomatic isolation of Rwanda is deepening, with the UK and EU imposing additional sanctions, but this approach is hardening Kigali’s stance rather than forcing a resolution. If the conflict continues, the likelihood of foreign military interventions—either direct or through proxy support—will increase, pulling in neighboring countries and making a resolution even more complex.
Sudan’s trajectory is shifting towards permanent state fragmentation, as the RSF moves to establish a de facto parallel government.
By signing political charters and seeking diplomatic legitimacy, the RSF is no longer just a rebel force—it is positioning itself as an alternative governing entity. This mirrors historical precedents seen in Libya and Syria, where rival factions entrenched their power and created long-term territorial divisions. Sudan’s worsening humanitarian crisis further complicates the situation, with mass starvation looming and refugees spilling into neighboring states. The RSF’s use of combat drones signals an escalation in military capabilities, raising the risk of prolonged warfare with greater civilian casualties.
Economic fragility is pushing multiple African states towards financial crises, with Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa at the forefront.
Kenya’s struggle with inflation and delayed external financing highlights deep fiscal vulnerabilities. Malawi’s mass protests against inflation (28.5%) expose the government’s inability to control monetary policy, while South Africa’s mining sector downturn threatens to derail economic recovery. Additionally, Africa’s worsening debt crisis, compounded by rising interest payments, is forcing leaders to push for urgent restructuring frameworks. However, without a unified multilateral response—including cooperation from China—African economies face prolonged stagnation and potential sovereign defaults.
Guinea-Bissau is on the verge of political collapse, with mass protests risking military intervention.
With opposition forces mobilizing against the government, and ECOWAS struggling to mediate, Guinea-Bissau follows the trajectory of recent West African crises in Mali and Burkina Faso. If the government loses control, the military could step in, further eroding democratic governance in the region. Moreover, as a key drug trafficking hub, increased instability could allow transnational criminal networks to expand their influence, worsening regional security.
Strategic Implications: The DRC’s escalating conflict threatens regional stability, Sudan’s power struggle risks permanent state division, and economic crises in Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa highlight Africa’s growing financial vulnerabilities. Guinea-Bissau’s instability could trigger a broader security crisis in West Africa. These developments require immediate diplomatic interventions, security realignments, and coordinated economic policies to prevent cascading instability across the continent.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(02-03-2025)
Africa is facing a critical convergence of security crises, economic turmoil, and political instability. The DRC war is escalating towards a potential regional conflict, with M23 insurgents and the Congolese government locked in a worsening military standoff. Sudan is fragmenting further as the RSF consolidates territorial control and pushes for international legitimacy. Economic pressures continue to build, with Kenya’s inflation crisis, Malawi’s protests, and South Africa’s mining downturn exacerbating financial vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, Guinea-Bissau teeters on the brink of collapse, raising concerns about further instability in West Africa. These developments demand urgent diplomatic engagement, economic policy realignments, and strengthened security interventions to prevent a broader destabilization of the continent.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads - (02-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify - (01-03-2025)
- Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate - (28-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis - (27-02-2025)
- Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms - (26-02-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
- Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control - (24-02-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: DRC’s War Escalates, Economic Crackdowns Reshape Markets, and Regional Alliances Shift - (23-02-2025)
