Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate
The deadly attack at an M23 rally in Bukavu signals a dangerous shift in the DRC conflict, increasing the likelihood of prolonged insurgency and retaliatory violence.
The explosions, which left 11 dead and over 60 wounded, are not just an isolated act of violence—they mark a shift in tactics that could reshape the war. The attack demonstrates that M23’s control over eastern DRC remains fragile, with insurgents struggling to secure their strongholds from internal and external threats. If such attacks continue, M23 may retaliate with harsher crackdowns on civilians and increased militarization, worsening the humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, Kinshasa, already under international pressure, could exploit this attack to justify more aggressive military actions or further internationalize the conflict by seeking broader regional intervention.
Sudan is on the brink of total collapse, with famine and war crimes becoming imminent realities.
The UN’s latest report describes the situation as a 'descent into hell,' with mass starvation looming and targeted atrocities escalating. The RSF’s attempts to consolidate power are no longer just a military struggle—they represent a shift towards entrenched territorial governance. If the RSF successfully establishes parallel governance structures, Sudan could fracture into multiple de facto states, similar to Libya or Syria, creating a long-term security vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups. Additionally, as humanitarian conditions deteriorate, the exodus of refugees into Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt could further destabilize the region, creating new political and security challenges.
Kenya’s inflation crisis exposes deep structural weaknesses in East Africa’s economic framework.
With inflation climbing to 3.5%, and non-core inflation surging to 8.2%, Kenya’s central bank is struggling to maintain stability. The failure of interest rate adjustments to curb inflation signals deeper fiscal mismanagement, particularly in debt servicing and public spending. If inflation continues unchecked, it could erode consumer purchasing power, stoke public unrest, and force Nairobi into restrictive economic policies that may hinder long-term growth. The situation also reflects a broader trend in East Africa, where currency depreciation and high borrowing costs are becoming systemic challenges.
South Africa’s mining industry downturn could accelerate economic decline, fueling domestic instability.
With Northam Platinum posting a 49.7% decline in profits, South Africa’s status as a global mining powerhouse is weakening. The consequences of this downturn are far-reaching: reduced foreign investment, rising unemployment, and heightened political tensions. Mining remains a core pillar of South Africa’s GDP, and a sustained downturn could weaken government revenue streams, increasing reliance on debt and external financing. This, in turn, could exacerbate social unrest, particularly ahead of upcoming budgetary decisions that may require further austerity measures.
Africa’s debt crisis is reaching a breaking point, forcing leaders to demand new financial relief frameworks.
With many African nations spending over 20% of their national revenue on interest payments, leaders are pushing for a debt relief mechanism similar to the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative of the early 2000s. However, this crisis is different—China, a key African creditor, has shown reluctance to engage in broad debt forgiveness. Without a multilateral agreement that includes China, the burden of debt servicing will remain a severe economic constraint on African economies. This could lead to a wave of sovereign defaults, economic stagnation, and increased foreign control over key national assets.
Guinea-Bissau is on the verge of political collapse, with protests threatening to trigger a security breakdown.
As opposition groups prepare for mass protests, ECOWAS has struggled to mediate a solution. Guinea-Bissau’s crisis is particularly dangerous because it follows the pattern of recent West African political collapses, including Mali and Burkina Faso, which resulted in military takeovers. If the government fails to maintain control, the military could step in, further undermining democratic governance in the region. Additionally, Guinea-Bissau remains a major drug trafficking hub, and political instability could allow transnational criminal networks to expand their influence.
Strategic Implications: The DRC’s growing insurgency, Sudan’s near-total collapse, and Guinea-Bissau’s political instability highlight Africa’s worsening security crisis. Meanwhile, the economic vulnerabilities in Kenya and South Africa reflect broader financial risks that could destabilize entire regions. The looming debt crisis demands immediate international intervention, but without multilateral consensus, African economies risk prolonged economic stagnation. These developments require urgent strategic responses, including security realignments, fiscal policy shifts, and diplomatic coordination at both regional and global levels.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(28-02-2025)
Africa is at a critical inflection point, with escalating conflicts, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical realignments shaping the continent’s trajectory. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) war has entered a more volatile phase after deadly explosions at an M23 rally, increasing the risk of retaliatory attacks and prolonged instability. Sudan is nearing total humanitarian collapse, with the UN warning of mass starvation and potential war crimes as the RSF consolidates its power. Kenya’s inflationary struggles highlight economic fragilities across East Africa, while South Africa faces a mining crisis that could undermine long-term fiscal stability. A broader debt crisis looms over the continent, forcing African leaders to push for urgent restructuring frameworks. Meanwhile, Guinea-Bissau's escalating political crisis could result in state failure, with severe consequences for West Africa. These developments demand immediate regional coordination, economic policy reforms, and international diplomatic engagement to prevent cascading instability.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate - (28-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis - (27-02-2025)
- Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms - (26-02-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
- Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control - (24-02-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: DRC’s War Escalates, Economic Crackdowns Reshape Markets, and Regional Alliances Shift - (23-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Conflict Escalates, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Rwanda Faces UNSC Condemnation - (22-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military Crisis, Rwanda-DRC Tensions, Nigeria’s Binance Crackdown, and Economic Realignments - (21-02-2025)
