Global Risk Indexes (28-02-2025)

Global 99 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on the Edge: Gaza Ceasefire in Peril, Iran’s Nuclear Program Expands, and Turkey’s PKK Gamble Raises Questions

The Middle East is facing a volatile mix of political uncertainty, military tensions, and economic maneuvering. The Gaza ceasefire is in serious jeopardy as Israel seeks an extension while Hamas demands clear commitments on Palestinian prisoner releases. Failure to reach an agreement could lead to the resumption of large-scale Israeli military operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, Turkey’s potential Kurdish peace process has drawn skepticism, as Abdullah Öcalan calls for the PKK to disarm, yet questions remain over whether the group’s leadership in Iraq and Syria will comply.

At the same time, Iran’s nuclear program has come under renewed scrutiny, with intelligence reports suggesting Tehran has further expanded uranium enrichment capabilities. This development raises concerns that Israel or the U.S. may consider preemptive action to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear weapons capability. In Syria, new evidence of mass graves near Damascus has intensified international war crimes investigations, placing additional pressure on the country’s newly formed government.

On the economic front, OPEC remains divided over oil output strategy, as members struggle to balance U.S. sanctions, Russian supply concerns, and global demand fluctuations. The UAE and Russia favor an increase, while Saudi Arabia and others prefer to delay, adding uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, Israel is facing an escalation in domestic security threats, with a ramming attack in northern Israel injuring seven and growing violence in the West Bank. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has also reaffirmed its commitment to war crimes investigations in Gaza, despite dropping an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif.

Elsewhere, financial hubs in the Gulf continue to expand, with Abu Dhabi’s ADGM reporting a 32% rise in new company registrations, highlighting the region’s economic resilience despite geopolitical instability. In Georgia, the government has renewed security contracts with Israeli firms, reflecting Tel Aviv’s growing influence in post-Soviet states. As these developments unfold, the Middle East remains at the brink of further conflict and geopolitical realignments.

Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in the Balance

Israel has sent negotiators to Cairo in a last-ditch attempt to extend the ceasefire, offering a deal where Hamas releases three hostages per week in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has rejected this proposal, demanding ironclad guarantees for future releases before agreeing to any extension. With only two days remaining before the ceasefire expires, the situation remains highly unstable.

Iran’s Nuclear Expansion Raises Alarms

New intelligence reports indicate that Iran has further increased uranium enrichment, nearing the threshold needed for weapons-grade material. Israeli officials have warned that 'all options remain on the table' to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, while U.S. policymakers are considering tighter sanctions or covert operations.

Turkey’s PKK Gamble: A Real Peace Process or Political Maneuver?

Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the PKK to disband has triggered mixed reactions. While some see this as a potential breakthrough for Kurdish-Turkish relations, others believe it is a political move by Erdogan’s government ahead of the 2028 elections. PKK leadership in Iraq and Syria has yet to respond, and if they reject Öcalan’s appeal, Turkey may escalate its military campaign in northern Iraq and Syria.

OPEC Struggles with Oil Output Decision

OPEC remains divided on whether to raise production in April, as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia complicate global supply dynamics. The UAE and Russia favor an increase, while Saudi Arabia and other key producers advocate for a freeze, creating uncertainty in the oil market.

ICC Pushes Forward with War Crimes Investigations

The International Criminal Court has reaffirmed its commitment to investigating war crimes in Gaza, despite withdrawing an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. This signals continued legal pressure on both Israeli and Palestinian actors involved in the conflict.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is rapidly approaching a decisive moment, with the Gaza ceasefire at risk, Iran’s nuclear expansion escalating, and Turkey’s Kurdish peace efforts facing skepticism. Economic uncertainty continues, with OPEC struggling to define its next move and financial hubs in the Gulf expanding despite regional instability. With multiple crises converging, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether the region sees further escalation or a fragile diplomatic breakthrough.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(28-02-2025)

The Middle East remains in a precarious state, with major security, economic, and political challenges unfolding simultaneously. The Gaza ceasefire is nearing its most fragile stage, with Israel pushing for an extension while Hamas demands firm guarantees on Palestinian prisoner releases. Meanwhile, Turkey’s potential Kurdish peace initiative has been complicated by skepticism over Öcalan’s real influence on the PKK, leaving uncertainty about whether this will lead to de-escalation or new security threats. Iran’s nuclear program is once again in the spotlight as intelligence reports claim Tehran has expanded uranium enrichment, increasing the risk of Israeli or U.S. military action. Syria is facing renewed scrutiny for war crimes, with reports of mass graves near Damascus linked to past regime atrocities. In the economic sphere, OPEC+ remains divided on its oil output strategy amid fluctuating prices, while financial hubs in the Gulf continue to expand. A resurgence of violence in Israel and the West Bank adds to growing regional instability, and the ICC is pressing forward with war crimes investigations in Gaza. With major conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and economic realignments intensifying, the region is at its highest geopolitical risk level.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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