Global Risk Indexes (28-02-2025)

Global 99 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Global Trade and Financial Markets in Turmoil: U.S.-China Tensions, Energy Volatility, and Economic Nationalism Reshape the Future

The economic landscape is undergoing profound shifts as geopolitical tensions, resource competition, and financial instability drive markets toward greater fragmentation. The U.S.-China trade war has intensified further, while energy market disruptions and currency volatility are reshaping global economic stability.

U.S.-China Trade War Expands: Supply Chains Face New Disruptions

The Trump administration has announced new trade restrictions on Chinese semiconductor and AI exports, intensifying the technological decoupling between the world’s two largest economies. In retaliation, China has implemented severe restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, targeting industries critical to Western defense and technology sectors.

Adding to the tensions, Washington has introduced new sanctions on Chinese financial institutions accused of facilitating trade with Russia, further tightening the global economic divide. Meanwhile, Beijing is strengthening trade ties with Russia, Iran, and Latin America to offset Western economic pressure.

Global corporations are scrambling to adjust. Multinational companies in the semiconductor and EV sectors are now accelerating their shift toward Southeast Asia and India, while Chinese firms are deepening their presence in Africa and South America.

Energy Market Disruptions: Oil Prices Surge Amid Middle East and European Supply Risks

The energy sector remains highly volatile, with Brent crude surging to $89 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical risks. The latest U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports have further tightened supply, with China and India scrambling to secure alternative crude sources.

Meanwhile, European energy security is under renewed threat. Ukraine has launched missile strikes on Russian-controlled oil depots in Crimea, disrupting supply chains and forcing Europe to increase emergency imports. In response, Moscow has threatened to limit energy exports to EU nations seen as actively supporting Ukraine.

Adding to the instability, Saudi Arabia and OPEC are considering production cuts to counter declining revenues, reinforcing concerns about long-term supply shortages.

Financial Market Instability: Gold Surges as Investors Flee to Safe Havens

Global financial markets are struggling with mounting uncertainties. Gold has surged to $3,275 per ounce, reflecting rising investor fears over inflation, trade war disruptions, and market volatility.

Meanwhile, global equity markets have experienced sharp declines, with Wall Street posting its fifth consecutive losing session. The tech sector has been particularly hit, as investors react to the expanding U.S.-China semiconductor trade war.

The foreign exchange market is also under pressure. The Chinese yuan has weakened further, while emerging market currencies—including the Brazilian real and Indian rupee—have declined amid capital outflows.

Looking Ahead: A World Defined by Economic Nationalism

The global economic order is undergoing a fundamental transformation, where economic nationalism and geopolitical rivalry drive decision-making. Trade, energy, and financial markets are now shaped by strategic competition rather than free-market principles.

For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the coming months will demand adaptability. Supply chain diversification, risk hedging, and geopolitical intelligence will be critical in navigating the increasingly fragmented global economy.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(28-02-2025)

The global economy is being reshaped by escalating trade wars, supply chain realignments, and energy market disruptions. The U.S.-China rivalry is now affecting every major sector, from semiconductors to critical minerals, as both sides take aggressive economic measures. Meanwhile, financial markets are experiencing increased volatility, with investors reacting to inflation concerns, currency instability, and the flight to safe-haven assets like gold. Energy markets remain under pressure as oil prices surge amid new geopolitical risks, including supply chain disruptions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Protectionist policies are no longer temporary responses to crises—they are becoming structural realities, defining the future of global trade and investment.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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