Global Risk Indexes (27-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East on High Alert: Gaza Ceasefire Unraveling, Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile Grows, and Syria’s Economic Struggles Deepen

The Middle East is at a dangerous inflection point, with multiple crises reaching a boiling point. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse as Hamas hands over more hostage remains while demanding guarantees for Palestinian prisoner releases, a condition Israel is refusing to meet. The risk of renewed Israeli military operations in Gaza is now higher than at any point since the ceasefire began. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program has reached a critical stage, with the IAEA confirming a sharp rise in enriched uranium stockpiles. The possibility of an Israeli or U.S. military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is growing, as Western governments debate their next course of action.

At the same time, Turkey is making a renewed attempt at a Kurdish peace process, allowing a high-level delegation to meet with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan. The move signals Ankara’s interest in a political resolution, but deep skepticism remains over whether this is a genuine shift or a tactical maneuver before upcoming elections. In Lebanon, the new government has secured a confidence vote and is preparing to engage with the IMF to prevent economic collapse. However, Hezbollah’s weakened political standing, following its military setbacks, raises concerns about the group’s future influence in the country.

Syria’s economic situation is deteriorating rapidly, with Qatar delaying crucial aid payments over fears of violating U.S. sanctions. The country’s new Islamist-led government is struggling to secure international legitimacy, while economic conditions worsen with energy shortages and delayed public sector salaries. The U.S. is also tightening economic pressure on Iran, expanding sanctions targeting Tehran’s drone program and its supply chains in China. Meanwhile, Jordan and Syria have announced a new security cooperation agreement to curb arms and drug smuggling along their shared border, marking a shift in diplomatic dynamics between Damascus and Amman.

The UAE has issued a firm warning that Gaza reconstruction will not proceed without a political resolution, putting further pressure on Trump’s controversial displacement plan. At the same time, a Malaysian court’s sentencing of an Israeli citizen for weapons smuggling has raised speculation about potential Israeli covert operations in Southeast Asia. Economic concerns are also mounting in Israel, with the central bank ordering $841 million in financial relief as the prolonged war takes a toll on the economy. With multiple high-stakes developments unfolding simultaneously, the Middle East remains dangerously close to a larger regional crisis.

Gaza Ceasefire at Risk as Hostage Deal Stalls

Hamas has handed over four more hostage bodies, but negotiations over the release of Palestinian prisoners remain deadlocked. Israel’s refusal to provide written guarantees for future prisoner releases has raised tensions, with Hamas threatening to halt further hostage handovers. The U.S., Egypt, and Qatar are scrambling to keep negotiations alive, but there is a growing likelihood that the ceasefire could collapse within days, triggering renewed military escalation in Gaza.

Iran’s Nuclear Program Triggers Regional Alarm

The IAEA has confirmed that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile has surged, reaching levels that could, with further refinement, produce multiple nuclear weapons. Israel has reiterated that it will not allow Iran to cross the nuclear threshold, while U.S. officials are debating whether to impose harsher sanctions or consider military action. This escalation increases the risk of a preemptive Israeli strike, which could trigger a broader regional conflict.

Turkey’s Kurdish Peace Process: Political Shift or Tactical Maneuver?

For the first time in months, a Turkish delegation has met with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan in prison. The move suggests that Ankara is reconsidering its approach to the Kurdish conflict, but skepticism remains over whether this is a sincere peace effort or a strategic political move ahead of elections. Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria may reject any peace deal that does not include broader political concessions.

Lebanon’s IMF Talks Begin Amid Political Uncertainty

With the new government securing a confidence vote, Lebanon is moving toward negotiations with the IMF to secure much-needed financial assistance. However, internal political divisions, particularly Hezbollah’s weakening position, may complicate reform efforts and delay economic recovery.

U.S. Expands Sanctions on Iran’s Drone Program

The U.S. has imposed new sanctions targeting Chinese suppliers linked to Iran’s drone program. The move is part of Washington’s broader effort to counter Iran’s growing military capabilities. However, Iran has proven resilient in bypassing sanctions, and this latest measure may push Tehran to seek alternative suppliers in Russia or North Korea.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is rapidly approaching a tipping point. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, Iran’s nuclear program is escalating dangerously, and Syria’s economic crisis is deepening. Meanwhile, Turkey’s attempt at a Kurdish peace process, Lebanon’s IMF talks, and Jordan-Syria security cooperation signal shifting diplomatic alignments. With the U.S. tightening economic pressure on Iran and Israeli military operations expanding, the coming days will be decisive in determining whether the region sees further destabilization or a diplomatic breakthrough.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(27-02-2025)

The Middle East remains in a state of extreme geopolitical volatility, with multiple crises escalating simultaneously. The Gaza ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, as Hamas hands over more hostage remains while demanding guarantees for Palestinian prisoner releases. Iran’s nuclear program has reached a critical threshold, with the IAEA confirming a dramatic increase in weapons-grade uranium stockpiles, raising fears of a military confrontation. Meanwhile, Turkey is testing a renewed peace process with the PKK, but skepticism remains over its viability. Lebanon’s new government has secured parliamentary confidence and is pushing for IMF negotiations to stabilize its shattered economy, but Hezbollah’s weakened political standing adds uncertainty. Syria’s economic crisis is deepening as Qatar delays financial aid over U.S. sanctions concerns, complicating efforts by the new Islamist-led government to gain legitimacy. The U.S. has expanded sanctions on Iran’s drone program, targeting Chinese suppliers, while Jordan and Syria have agreed to strengthen border security to curb arms and drug smuggling. The UAE has made clear that Gaza reconstruction cannot move forward without a political resolution, further weakening Trump’s displacement plan. With the region’s economic, diplomatic, and security landscape rapidly deteriorating, the risk of a wider regional conflict remains dangerously high.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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