Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis
International sanctions on Rwanda complicate efforts to stabilize the DRC conflict.
As the UK and European Union expand sanctions on Kigali for its alleged support of M23, Kinshasa sees little incentive to negotiate. Rwanda’s response—denying involvement but refusing to withdraw troops—suggests that diplomatic isolation is hardening Kigali’s position rather than compelling a resolution. The likelihood of prolonged insurgency and deeper regional instability is increasing.
Sudan’s war takes a new turn with satellite-confirmed drone warfare by the RSF.
Satellite imagery shows Chinese-manufactured combat drones stationed at an RSF-controlled airstrip in Nyala. The introduction of drones suggests a new phase in the conflict, with the RSF gaining aerial capabilities that could shift the balance of power in Darfur. The Sudanese army is likely to intensify airstrikes, worsening civilian casualties and deepening the humanitarian crisis.
Guinea-Bissau faces a political showdown as opposition leaders attempt to shut down the country.
Amid contested electoral timelines, opposition parties are mobilizing nationwide protests, threatening to paralyze the capital Bissau. With ECOWAS struggling to mediate, the situation risks triggering military intervention, given the country’s history of coups and political violence.
Morocco’s strategic infrastructure push strengthens its position in global trade.
Marsa Maroc’s new contract to operate a second terminal at Nador West Med solidifies Morocco’s ambition to rival European ports in global supply chains. The project enhances Morocco’s trade leverage while increasing geopolitical competition with Algeria.
South Africa’s economic outlook weakens as global commodity price volatility impacts key industries.
With platinum and palladium prices falling, South Africa’s mining sector is facing profitability concerns. Impala Platinum’s potential early shutdown of its Canadian operations highlights broader vulnerabilities in the platinum group metals (PGM) market. If the trend continues, mining job losses and reduced foreign revenue could worsen South Africa’s economic instability.
Strategic Implications: The DRC conflict is becoming a prolonged insurgency with limited prospects for peace. Sudan’s war is entering a technological arms race, with external actors likely playing a growing role. Guinea-Bissau’s instability threatens regional security, while Morocco and Algeria’s economic rivalry is shaping North Africa’s geopolitical future. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economic struggles highlight broader risks facing commodity-dependent economies. These developments call for urgent diplomatic interventions, economic reforms, and security realignments.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(27-02-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical landscape remains highly volatile, with escalating conflicts, economic vulnerabilities, and shifting diplomatic alignments. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces growing instability as the M23 rebellion persists amid heightened international sanctions on Rwanda. Ethiopia and Somalia are seeking rapprochement, but unresolved territorial disputes continue to fuel tensions. Nigeria's economic trajectory is being shaped by regulatory overhauls in finance and pharmaceuticals, while Morocco and Algeria are expanding their strategic influence through energy, trade, and infrastructure. Sudan's war is entering a dangerous new phase with the confirmed use of combat drones, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, Guinea-Bissau is on the brink of major political unrest, and South Africa navigates economic challenges as global commodity prices fluctuate. These developments necessitate heightened diplomatic interventions, robust economic policies, and strengthened regional cooperation to mitigate risks.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis - (27-02-2025)
- Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms - (26-02-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
- Africa’s Deepening Crisis: DRC War Escalates, Sudan Faces Famine, Ethiopia-Kenya Tensions Rise, and Nigeria Tightens Economic Control - (24-02-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: DRC’s War Escalates, Economic Crackdowns Reshape Markets, and Regional Alliances Shift - (23-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Conflict Escalates, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Rwanda Faces UNSC Condemnation - (22-02-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military Crisis, Rwanda-DRC Tensions, Nigeria’s Binance Crackdown, and Economic Realignments - (21-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security Order and Economic Stability on Edge: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Battles Binance, and South Africa’s Budget Crisis Deepens - (20-02-2025)
