Global Risk Indexes (01-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 96 (-2 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Safiya Mbeki, Africa region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Safiya Mbeki

Navigating Africa's Complexities with Insight and Integrity

Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is on the brink of a regional war as the M23 conflict spirals.

The deadly explosions in Bukavu, which left 13 dead and nearly 100 wounded, have triggered a blame game between the Congolese government and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels. This comes as M23 consolidates control over Goma and Bukavu, despite international sanctions and diplomatic pressure. The failure of peace talks and the postponement of regional ceasefire discussions signal that neither side is willing to de-escalate. If the situation deteriorates further, the DRC conflict could lead to increased foreign military interventions, especially from Rwanda and Burundi, potentially pulling East Africa into a wider confrontation.

Sudan’s crisis is deepening, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) establishing a parallel government.

The RSF’s latest move to sign a political charter in Kenya, forming a ‘Government of Peace and Unity,’ is a direct challenge to Sudan’s army-led administration. The paramilitary group is seeking international legitimacy to gain access to advanced weaponry and humanitarian aid. By doing so, the RSF is accelerating Sudan’s fragmentation, making a return to a centralized government unlikely. If foreign actors recognize the RSF’s new government, Sudan could become a multi-state conflict zone akin to Libya, where rival factions control different parts of the country. This shift could also allow foreign powers, particularly in the Gulf, to deepen their influence over Sudan’s future.

Economic fragility is pushing African governments to the brink, with Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa facing severe fiscal stress.

Malawi’s economy is struggling with soaring inflation (28.5%), driving street protests that have spread from Lilongwe to Blantyre. The government is attempting to stabilize its currency by cracking down on the black market, but this could further restrict access to foreign exchange, worsening the crisis. Kenya, meanwhile, is delaying drawing funds from a $1.5 billion bond with the UAE, highlighting its growing budgetary constraints. If external financing sources dry up, Kenya may be forced to implement harsher austerity measures, potentially triggering social unrest.

Namibia’s Supreme Court has ended the election dispute, clearing the way for Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah to become the country’s first female president.

Although the court ruling provides a legal resolution, the opposition remains unconvinced, and discontent may persist. SWAPO, which has ruled Namibia for over 30 years, faces increasing pressure to implement reforms amid economic hardships and growing youth unemployment. Without meaningful political engagement with the opposition, Namibia could see rising political protests that weaken investor confidence.

Africa’s global trade outlook is worsening as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warns of weak external demand.

The EBRD’s downward revision of economic growth to 3.2% reflects the impact of global trade wars, weaker European competitiveness, and increased defense spending. For Africa, this means reduced access to external markets and investment, further constraining economic recovery. If trade slowdowns persist, African economies may shift towards regional trade blocs to counterbalance declining European and Chinese demand.

Strategic Implications: Africa is facing a multi-dimensional crisis where political instability, economic stress, and security threats are converging. The DRC’s growing war risks entangling regional actors in a prolonged conflict, while Sudan’s fragmentation could lead to long-term territorial divisions. Economic vulnerabilities in Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa highlight the increasing financial fragility of African states, raising the risk of sovereign defaults and social unrest. Namibia’s post-election transition will test the resilience of its democratic institutions. Meanwhile, declining global trade presents a structural challenge for African economies that remain heavily reliant on external markets. Urgent interventions are needed, including diplomatic conflict resolution in the DRC and Sudan, economic stabilization measures, and coordinated regional trade policies.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(01-03-2025)

Africa faces deepening political instability, economic uncertainty, and escalating regional conflicts. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is nearing a potential regional war as M23 rebels and the Congolese government accuse each other of deadly attacks. Sudan's power struggle has intensified with the RSF establishing a parallel government, seeking diplomatic legitimacy and military resupply. Economic pressures are mounting, with Malawi's inflation driving mass protests and Kenya struggling with fiscal constraints despite external financing. Meanwhile, Namibia’s election controversy has ended with a Supreme Court ruling, but political tensions persist. Africa’s economic landscape is also being shaped by global trade downturns, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) warning of weak external demand. The continent is at a crossroads where unchecked conflicts could spill over into wider geopolitical shifts, while economic crises could accelerate instability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)

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