Global Risk Indexes (01-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 96 (-2 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific at a Crossroads: China-Russia Alliance Strengthens, South China Sea Tensions Mount, and Economic Shifts Accelerate

The Asia-Pacific is witnessing intensified geopolitical realignments, with China and Russia hardening their strategic alliance while regional economies seek to rebalance trade dependencies. Military tensions in the South China Sea are escalating, espionage and influence operations are becoming more overt, and economic security is driving new policy shifts.

China-Russia Alliance: A United Front Against NATO’s Asia-Pacific Expansion

Xi Jinping and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have reaffirmed their nations’ 'rock-solid' strategic partnership, warning against NATO’s increasing presence in the Asia-Pacific. The rhetoric suggests a shift toward greater military cooperation, as both Beijing and Moscow see the U.S.-led alliances in the region as direct threats to their influence.

This growing alignment means that future security tensions—whether over Taiwan, the South China Sea, or Ukraine—are likely to be met with coordinated military and economic responses from both China and Russia. For U.S. allies in the region, this raises the risk of a two-front security challenge that could stretch existing defense commitments.

South China Sea: China’s Naval Drills Near Australia Escalate Regional Concerns

China’s latest live-fire naval exercises near Australian waters have sparked diplomatic protests, with civilian aviation authorities warning that commercial air traffic was disrupted. Beijing claims these drills are 'routine,' but their proximity to Australian territory suggests an intentional show of force.

This incident signals China’s growing willingness to assert its influence beyond the South China Sea, challenging Australia’s regional security posture. If these exercises become a pattern, Canberra may be forced to increase defense cooperation with the U.S. and regional allies, raising the risk of a broader military escalation.

Thailand’s Uyghur Deportation Crisis: A Diplomatic Firestorm

Thailand’s secretive deportation of 40 Uyghurs to China has triggered a backlash from the U.S. and Australia, with human rights groups warning of potential security consequences. This move deepens the divide between Southeast Asian nations trying to balance relations with China and the West.

Washington is now reviewing its security cooperation with Bangkok, and the incident could hasten Thailand’s geopolitical realignment. If Thailand continues strengthening ties with China at the expense of Western partnerships, it may face economic consequences, including shifts in trade and investment policies.

North Korea Expands Military Support for Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with a high-level North Korean official, further solidifying Pyongyang’s role in Moscow’s war effort. Reports suggest North Korea has increased arms shipments to Russia, particularly artillery shells and missiles.

This deepening military cooperation raises concerns that Russia could provide advanced weapons technology to North Korea in return, potentially enhancing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities. This presents a direct security challenge to South Korea, Japan, and the broader region.

Vietnam’s Economic Pivot: Starlink Approval and U.S. Arms Negotiations

Vietnam has fast-tracked the approval of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service while also negotiating significant aircraft and arms purchases from the U.S.. This reflects Hanoi’s attempt to diversify its economic partnerships and reduce dependence on China.

As Vietnam increases security cooperation with Washington, Beijing may respond with economic pressure or increased maritime assertiveness in contested waters.

The Philippines-China Espionage Standoff

The Philippines has charged detained Chinese nationals with espionage, marking a major escalation in the region’s intelligence battle. Manila’s move signals a more confrontational approach to Beijing’s influence operations, likely encouraged by increased U.S. intelligence cooperation.

This case could lead to diplomatic retaliation from China, including economic pressure or visa restrictions, further straining bilateral relations.

Looking Ahead: A Region on the Brink of Strategic Shifts

The Asia-Pacific is at a critical juncture, with major realignments underway. The China-Russia alliance is deepening, economic blocs are shifting, and military confrontations are becoming more frequent. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether these trends lead to broader instability or recalibrations in regional strategies.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(01-03-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing a rapid escalation of military, economic, and geopolitical tensions. The China-Russia alliance is hardening, with both nations warning against NATO expansion into the region and strengthening their military cooperation. The South China Sea is becoming increasingly volatile, as China’s live-fire naval drills near Australia disrupt regional security. Thailand’s forced deportation of Uyghurs to China has triggered diplomatic outrage, widening the divide between Western allies and Southeast Asian nations balancing ties with Beijing. North Korea is deepening its military support for Russia, raising concerns over weapons proliferation. Meanwhile, economic tensions are also mounting. India is expanding its critical minerals strategy to reduce reliance on China, Vietnam is accelerating trade deals with the U.S., and South Korea is pushing for tariff exemptions in Washington while navigating an economic slowdown. The Philippines-China espionage standoff further complicates regional security, as Beijing’s influence operations face direct pushback. With ongoing trade disruptions, military escalations, and diplomatic conflicts, the risk of strategic miscalculations remains critically high.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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