Global Risk Indexes (01-03-2025)

Global 98 (-1 ▼)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 96 (-2 ▼)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Middle East at a Crossroads: Gaza Ceasefire Tensions, Kurdish Peace Gambit, and U.S.-Israel Military Ties Shape Regional Uncertainty

The Middle East is experiencing a pivotal moment as security risks, diplomatic maneuvering, and economic instability converge. The Gaza ceasefire is at immediate risk, with Hamas and Israel locked in a standoff over whether to extend the current phase or proceed with the next round of negotiations. Failure to reach an agreement could trigger a resumption of hostilities in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s Kurdish peace process has taken a major step forward, as the PKK declared an immediate ceasefire following Öcalan’s call for disarmament. However, skepticism remains over whether Ankara will engage in genuine political reforms or use this moment to consolidate control over Kurdish regions in Syria and Iraq.

At the same time, Israel is actively lobbying Washington to maintain Syria’s weakness and counter Turkish influence, signaling a new phase in the regional power struggle. Israeli officials have pushed for continued Russian military presence in Syria as a check against Ankara, a move that complicates U.S. strategy in the region.

In a parallel development, the U.S. has approved a $3 billion emergency weapons sale to Israel, bypassing congressional review. The deal includes thousands of precision-guided bombs and demolition kits, reinforcing Washington’s ongoing military support amid rising tensions in Gaza and Lebanon.

Economic instability continues to plague the region. Lebanon’s president is seeking Saudi Arabia’s revival of a $3 billion aid package to bolster the Lebanese military, but Riyadh remains cautious, demanding political reforms in exchange for financial support. Meanwhile, UNICEF has warned that U.S. funding cuts have left thousands of Lebanese children in severe food poverty, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

The energy sector is also facing renewed uncertainty. Iraq’s oil export crisis has deepened, with Kurdish oil firms refusing to resume shipments through Turkey despite Baghdad’s announcement of an imminent restart. Washington is pushing Iraq to resolve the dispute to counter Iranian oil influence, but Kurdish authorities demand guarantees on payment before committing to exports.

In Gaza, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has reaffirmed its commitment to war crimes investigations, despite dropping an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. This signals continued legal pressure on both Israeli and Palestinian factions, which could shape the future diplomatic landscape.

Gaza Ceasefire Tensions Rise as Negotiations Stall

Israel is pushing for a 42-day extension of the current ceasefire phase, while Hamas demands immediate progress toward a permanent truce and additional prisoner releases. Egypt and Qatar are mediating talks, but with no agreement reached, the possibility of renewed military operations in Gaza remains dangerously high.

Turkey’s Kurdish Peace Initiative Faces Uncertainty

The PKK’s announcement of a ceasefire is a historic moment, yet the Turkish government has so far refused to offer political concessions. If Ankara continues its military operations in Kurdish-held areas of Iraq and Syria, the ceasefire may collapse, reigniting decades of conflict.

Israel’s Lobbying Efforts in Washington: Aiming to Keep Syria Weak

Israeli officials have urged the U.S. to maintain sanctions on Syria’s new Islamist-led government and allow Russia to keep its military bases in the country. This is part of a broader strategy to prevent Turkey from gaining influence in post-Assad Syria, highlighting a new geopolitical fault line.

U.S. Approves $3 Billion Emergency Weapons Sale to Israel

The Trump administration has approved the sale of thousands of precision-guided bombs and demolition kits to Israel, bypassing congressional oversight. This move reinforces U.S. military support for Israel as it navigates ongoing security threats in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

Iraq’s Oil Export Crisis Deepens

Despite Baghdad’s announcement that Kurdish oil exports would resume, major energy firms have refused to comply, citing unresolved payment issues. Washington is pressuring Iraq to resolve the dispute as part of its broader effort to curb Iranian oil revenues.

Strategic Outlook

The Middle East is at a critical juncture, with the Gaza ceasefire in jeopardy, Kurdish peace efforts uncertain, and Israel pushing for new security alignments in Syria. Economic and humanitarian challenges continue to mount, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq, while energy disputes and military deals add to the region’s volatility. The coming days will be decisive in determining whether the region moves toward stabilization or further escalation.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(01-03-2025)

The Middle East remains on the brink of further escalation as multiple security, political, and economic crises unfold. The Gaza ceasefire is at its most fragile stage, with Israel pushing for an extension while Hamas insists on moving to the second phase of negotiations, raising fears of renewed military operations. Turkey’s Kurdish peace initiative has taken a major step forward with the PKK declaring a ceasefire, yet uncertainty remains over whether Ankara will reciprocate with political concessions. Israel is actively lobbying the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized, while also securing an emergency $3 billion weapons deal, underscoring its ongoing military strategy. Lebanon is seeking Saudi financial support to stabilize its military, while UNICEF warns that the country’s worsening economic crisis is leaving children in severe food poverty. Meanwhile, Iraq faces renewed energy disputes as Kurdish oil firms refuse to resume exports, despite pressure from Baghdad and Washington. The UN and Arab League are preparing a counterproposal to Trump’s Gaza displacement plan, highlighting regional resistance to U.S. strategies. With major geopolitical, economic, and security risks converging, the region remains at its highest threat level.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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