Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Raise War Risks, South Sudan’s Crisis Worsens, and Economic Uncertainty Grows in Africa
Ethiopia and Eritrea edge closer to war, threatening Horn of Africa stability.
Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sparked fears of direct military conflict, which could draw in regional powers. A faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) seized control of the town of Adigrat, prompting Tigray’s interim leadership to call for federal intervention. Reports of Ethiopian troop deployments near the Eritrean border and Eritrea’s military mobilization suggest an escalation that could reignite large-scale warfare. Given both nations’ histories of prolonged conflict, the risk of war is substantial, with humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.
South Sudan’s political crisis deepens as IGAD calls for release of detained officials.
The East African bloc IGAD has urged South Sudan’s government to release opposition-aligned officials arrested in Juba and lift security restrictions. The escalating power struggle between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar threatens to derail South Sudan’s peace process. The detentions, along with recent clashes near Nasir, signal rising tensions that could lead to renewed conflict.
Direct peace talks between DRC and M23 set for March 18, but uncertainty remains.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is considering sending representatives to peace talks with the M23 rebels in Angola, marking a potential breakthrough. However, President Tshisekedi has not officially confirmed participation, and Kinshasa insists Rwanda must be held accountable for its role in the conflict. With M23 still holding key cities in eastern Congo, the negotiations could either lead to de-escalation or serve as a temporary pause in hostilities.
Tanzania shifts budget priorities as U.S. aid declines.
Tanzania plans to increase spending by 13.4% in its next fiscal year, focusing on debt repayment, election costs, and economic self-sufficiency amid declining foreign aid. The freeze on U.S. assistance under President Donald Trump has forced Tanzania to adjust its fiscal strategy, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of its economic plans.
South Africa’s budget faces strong political opposition, raising fiscal risks.
The revised South African budget, which scaled back proposed tax hikes, has been rejected by major political parties, exposing fractures in the ruling coalition. The failure to pass a budget could trigger deeper investor uncertainty, further weakening the rand and South Africa’s economic outlook.
Nigeria’s tax reform advances but faces political compromises.
Nigeria’s parliament passed four tax reform bills, marking progress in fiscal restructuring. However, lawmakers rejected an increase in value-added tax (VAT) and made adjustments to revenue-sharing mechanisms, weakening the impact of the reforms. While the measures aim to boost government revenue, their effectiveness depends on enforcement and broader economic conditions.
Al-Shabaab attack in Somalia kills 10, underscoring persistent security threats.
The death toll from Al-Shabaab’s attack on a hotel in Beledweyne has risen to 10, with most victims being civilians. The attack targeted clan elders discussing counterterrorism efforts, demonstrating Al-Shabaab’s ability to disrupt local governance and security structures. The ongoing violence highlights Somalia’s struggles to contain the militant group.
Namibia confirms its first cholera case in a decade, signaling new health risks.
Namibia has reported its first cholera case in 10 years, linked to an ongoing outbreak in neighboring Angola. The confirmation of cholera in Namibia raises concerns about cross-border disease transmission, emphasizing the need for improved public health preparedness in the region.
Strategic Implications: The Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions and South Sudan’s crisis represent major security risks that could destabilize the region. The DRC-M23 negotiations offer a potential diplomatic breakthrough but remain uncertain. Economic challenges persist in Tanzania and South Africa, while Nigeria’s tax reforms may not generate sufficient revenue. Al-Shabaab’s continued attacks and Namibia’s cholera case add to Africa’s security and health concerns. Urgent diplomatic interventions and economic adjustments are needed to address these escalating challenges.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(13-03-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk has increased as security threats and political instability escalate. Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of war, threatening to destabilize the Horn of Africa. South Sudan’s internal political crisis risks unraveling its fragile peace, while uncertainty over the DRC-M23 negotiations could prolong conflict in the Great Lakes region. Economic challenges persist, with Tanzania adjusting its budget in response to declining U.S. aid, and South Africa’s government struggling to pass a budget. Security risks remain high, as Al-Shabaab continues its deadly attacks in Somalia, and Namibia confirms its first cholera case in a decade. Addressing these challenges requires diplomatic intervention, security de-escalation, and urgent policy adjustments to stabilize economies under pressure.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Raise War Risks, South Sudan’s Crisis Worsens, and Economic Uncertainty Grows in Africa - (13-03-2025)
- Africa’s Stability Tested: DRC Mediation, Economic Struggles in Ghana and Egypt, and Rising Security Threats - (12-03-2025)
- Africa at a Crossroads: Political Upheaval in the DRC, Foreign Military Involvement in South Sudan, and Economic Fragmentation - (11-03-2025)
- South Sudan’s Peace Process Unraveling, DRC’s Conflict Intensifies, and U.S. Eyes Africa’s Critical Minerals - (10-03-2025)
- Africa Faces Deepening Crises: South Sudan’s Peace in Peril, DRC Refugee Surge, and Growing Global Tensions - (09-03-2025)
- South Sudan Faces Renewed Conflict, DRC Refugee Crisis Deepens, and U.S.-South Africa Relations Fracture - (08-03-2025)
- South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector - (07-03-2025)
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
