South Sudan’s Peace Process Unraveling, DRC’s Conflict Intensifies, and U.S. Eyes Africa’s Critical Minerals
U.S. orders evacuation of personnel from South Sudan as security situation deteriorates.
The U.S. State Department has issuing an evacuation order for non-emergency personnel in South Sudan, citing increased violence, widespread armed conflict, and political instability. The directive follows the arrest of two ministers and several senior military officials aligned with Vice President Riek Machar, escalating tensions between Machar and President Salva Kiir. The arrests and rising political friction threaten to derail the 2018 peace agreement, raising fears of renewed large-scale violence. Reports of carjackings, ambushes, and kidnappings further reinforce concerns over the country’s deteriorating security landscape.
Fighting in eastern DRC escalates as M23 rebels seize key territory.
Heavy fighting between M23 rebels and pro-government militias has erupted in Nyabiondo, a strategically significant town 100 km north of Goma. The rebel group, backed by Rwanda, has steadily expanded its territorial control, capturing large swathes of mineral-rich land. A recent attack in Tambi left between 40 and 70 civilians dead, underscoring the devastating impact of the ongoing conflict. M23’s growing influence not only threatens regional stability but also heightens competition over valuable mining resources.
U.S. explores critical minerals partnerships with the DRC amid intensifying geopolitical competition.
Washington has expressed interest in securing access to the DRC’s vast reserves of cobalt, lithium, and uranium, following discussions with Congolese officials. The U.S. is competing with China, which currently dominates Congo’s mining sector. If the U.S. successfully enters the DRC’s mining industry, it could shift the global supply chain for critical minerals, potentially reshaping Africa’s geopolitical landscape.
Mali’s mining dispute with Barrick Gold remains unresolved.
Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold remains locked in a dispute with the Malian government over the implementation of a new mining code that grants the state a larger stake in resource extraction. While both sides are negotiating a resolution, operations remain suspended, affecting Mali’s gold exports. The prolonged dispute highlights increasing risks for foreign investors operating in Africa’s resource sector.
African Finance Corporation accelerates efforts to mobilize domestic capital.
With U.S. and European aid to Africa declining, the African Finance Corporation (AFC) is shifting towards mobilizing domestic and Gulf-region investments. The initiative aims to reduce Africa’s dependence on Western financial assistance while strengthening internal investment mechanisms. If successful, this shift could help African economies become more self-sufficient, though it also requires strong financial governance to mitigate risks.
Strategic Implications: The U.S. evacuation from South Sudan signals growing instability that could threaten the country’s fragile peace process. The escalating conflict in the DRC, coupled with geopolitical competition over critical minerals, could reshape Africa’s resource landscape. Mali’s mining sector dispute underscores regulatory risks for foreign investors, while the AFC’s investment strategy reflects Africa’s shifting financial priorities. These developments necessitate coordinated international efforts to stabilize key regions and prevent further economic and security fragmentation.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(10-03-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk remains critically high due to escalating conflicts, political instability, and economic uncertainties. South Sudan's peace process is under severe strain as the United States orders a partial evacuation of its personnel, citing security concerns. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces worsening violence as M23 rebels seize strategic towns, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. The United States is positioning itself for deeper engagement in Africa’s critical minerals sector, particularly in the DRC, as geopolitical competition with China intensifies. Meanwhile, Mali’s dispute with Barrick Gold underscores the region’s increasing regulatory risks for foreign investors. At the same time, Africa is seeing a strategic shift in financial investments, with the African Finance Corporation accelerating efforts to mobilize domestic capital amid Western aid reductions. These developments signal growing economic and security fragmentation across the continent, necessitating urgent diplomatic and strategic interventions.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- South Sudan’s Peace Process Unraveling, DRC’s Conflict Intensifies, and U.S. Eyes Africa’s Critical Minerals - (10-03-2025)
- Africa Faces Deepening Crises: South Sudan’s Peace in Peril, DRC Refugee Surge, and Growing Global Tensions - (09-03-2025)
- South Sudan Faces Renewed Conflict, DRC Refugee Crisis Deepens, and U.S.-South Africa Relations Fracture - (08-03-2025)
- South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector - (07-03-2025)
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crises Deepen: DRC Conflict Intensifies, South Sudan Risks Civil War, and Economic Woes Mount - (05-03-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military in Crisis, Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Breakdown, and Economic Strains Deepen - (03-03-2025)
