Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise
The DRC is facing an escalating security and humanitarian crisis, with M23 rebels accused of mass abductions and war crimes.
The United Nations has confirmed that M23 fighters kidnapped at least 130 wounded men from two hospitals in Goma, allegedly suspecting them of being Congolese army soldiers or members of pro-government militias. This unprecedented attack on medical facilities reflects M23’s growing impunity and the inability of international diplomacy to rein in the insurgency. Meanwhile, the group’s territorial expansion continues, raising fears that the conflict could engulf more of eastern Congo and force regional powers into direct intervention.
Sudan’s war economy is evolving as the RSF strengthens its financial networks through the illicit trade of gum arabic.
Gum arabic, a key stabilizing agent in global food and pharmaceutical industries, is now controlled by the RSF in western Sudan. The paramilitary group is profiting from smuggling networks that route the commodity through Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, bypassing Sudan’s formal economy. This illicit trade strengthens the RSF’s military operations while undermining Sudan’s national economy, further entrenching the country’s division. Western consumer goods companies face growing ethical and legal risks as conflict-linked gum arabic infiltrates global supply chains.
Guinea-Bissau’s political crisis is worsening, with President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s defiance of ECOWAS raising the risk of military intervention.
Embalo has rejected calls for early elections, intensifying opposition protests and increasing fears that the military could intervene, as seen in recent coups in Mali and Burkina Faso. His outreach to Russia signals a potential geopolitical shift, particularly as Moscow deepens ties with African leaders facing Western isolation. If Embalo is forcibly removed, Guinea-Bissau could fall into prolonged instability, with criminal networks exploiting the power vacuum.
Gabon's military ruler, Brice Oligui Nguema, has announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections.
While Gabon’s junta has promised a transition to democracy, Nguema’s decision to run raises doubts about the credibility of the process. His victory would likely consolidate military rule under the guise of civilian governance, similar to recent transitions in Chad and Mali. This could set a precedent for military-led political takeovers elsewhere in Africa.
Africa’s economic outlook remains fragile, with key economies facing downturns.
South Africa’s manufacturing sector continues to contract, with GDP figures showing minimal growth, while the rand weakens amid investor concerns. Meanwhile, Egypt has secured a new European Investment Bank loan for food security, highlighting its reliance on external financing. Kenya’s currency remains volatile despite efforts to stabilize foreign exchange markets. These trends suggest that economic pressures could fuel further social unrest, particularly in countries where inflation and unemployment remain high.
Strategic Implications: The security situation in the DRC is deteriorating, with M23’s abductions setting a dangerous precedent for war crimes in the region. Sudan’s illicit economy is strengthening the RSF’s position, prolonging the conflict and complicating diplomatic resolutions. Guinea-Bissau’s political uncertainty raises the risk of another coup in West Africa, while Gabon’s election could reinforce military dominance in African politics. Economic vulnerabilities in South Africa, Egypt, and Kenya could trigger instability if financial stress worsens. Urgent diplomatic engagement, economic reforms, and security measures are needed to prevent Africa’s crises from escalating further.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(04-03-2025)
Africa faces a deepening geopolitical crisis marked by escalating conflicts, economic vulnerabilities, and political shifts. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing an intensified military crisis as the M23 rebels expand their control and commit grave human rights violations, including the abduction of 130 hospital patients. Sudan's war economy is evolving with the illicit trade of gum arabic funding the RSF, complicating efforts to stabilize the country. In West Africa, Guinea-Bissau risks military intervention as President Umaro Sissoco Embalo resists ECOWAS pressure. Gabon's political future remains uncertain, as the ruling junta moves to consolidate power. Meanwhile, Africa’s economic challenges are worsening, with South Africa's manufacturing decline, Egypt's financial struggles, and Kenya's currency volatility underscoring the continent’s fiscal instability. These developments highlight the urgent need for diplomatic intervention, regional coordination, and economic restructuring.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military in Crisis, Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Breakdown, and Economic Strains Deepen - (03-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads - (02-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify - (01-03-2025)
- Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate - (28-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis - (27-02-2025)
- Geopolitical Shifts Deepen in Africa: DRC War Escalates, Nigeria Faces Energy and Economic Challenges, and Debt Crisis Looms - (26-02-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical and Economic Crisis Deepens: DRC Conflict Worsens, Nigeria Expands Economic Crackdowns, and Sudan’s Famine Looms - (25-02-2025)
