Global Risk Indexes (04-03-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Mateo Fernandez, Americas region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mateo Fernandez

Unraveling the Threads of Americas' Geopolitics: Insight, Precision, Vision

Trade Decoupling, Financial Crisis, and Security Confrontations Push the Americas Toward Greater Instability

The Americas continue to experience extreme geopolitical uncertainty, as economic fragmentation, financial instability, and rising security tensions define the regional landscape. Today’s developments highlight the structural forces reshaping the continent’s geopolitical order.

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war is deepening regional economic fragmentation. Mexico and Canada are continuing to solidify their economic diversification strategies, further reducing their reliance on U.S. trade. Mexico’s latest agreements with China and the EU indicate a decisive pivot toward alternative economic partnerships. Meanwhile, Canada is expanding its energy exports to non-U.S. markets, reinforcing a broader structural shift away from Washington’s economic influence.

Argentina’s financial system is on the brink of collapse. Liquidity shortages have worsened, forcing additional banking restrictions that have triggered growing public anxiety. Inflation remains at crisis levels, and the Milei administration’s emergency financial measures have failed to restore market confidence. If Argentina’s economic crisis continues to escalate, the country risks a systemic financial meltdown with severe spillover effects across South America.

Brazil’s political crisis is escalating as Bolsonaro’s supporters intensify their mobilization efforts. Mass demonstrations are growing, with organized protests targeting critical infrastructure. Reports indicate that elements within Brazil’s security forces are increasingly divided, raising the risk of institutional fractures. The likelihood of violent clashes between Bolsonaro loyalists and law enforcement is increasing, threatening broader political stability.

U.S.-Mexico security relations are deteriorating rapidly as Washington advances its counter-cartel military strategy. Intelligence leaks suggest that U.S. policymakers are finalizing direct military operations against cartel leadership, a move that could trigger a severe diplomatic crisis with Mexico. President Sheinbaum has reiterated strong opposition to any unilateral U.S. military action, but Washington appears committed to escalating counter-cartel operations. If military intervention proceeds, U.S.-Mexico relations could enter their most dangerous phase in modern history.

China is further entrenching its economic influence in Latin America. Beijing has secured new trade and infrastructure agreements in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, reinforcing its role as the region’s primary economic alternative to the United States. As Washington remains focused on security challenges, Latin American governments are deepening their economic realignment with China, further reducing U.S. leverage in the region.

Short-term risks include escalating financial instability in Argentina, growing political unrest in Brazil, and worsening U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations. In the long term, the Americas are transitioning toward a fragmented geopolitical structure, with declining U.S. influence and rising economic and security uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Americas
(04-03-2025)

The Americas remain in a prolonged state of geopolitical instability, with worsening economic fragmentation, financial distress, and security tensions. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade war continues to accelerate economic realignment, with Mexico and Canada finalizing trade diversification strategies that weaken North American integration. Argentina’s financial system is deteriorating further, with liquidity shortages forcing banks to impose additional restrictions, raising fears of systemic collapse. Meanwhile, Brazil’s political crisis is escalating, as Bolsonaro’s supporters increase their mobilization efforts, heightening the risk of violent confrontations. The U.S.-Mexico security crisis remains the most immediate flashpoint, with Washington advancing its counter-cartel military strategy, pushing diplomatic relations with Mexico to a critical breaking point. Additionally, China is deepening its economic influence across Latin America, reinforcing the region’s shift away from U.S.-led economic and security frameworks. These trends confirm that the Americas are undergoing a fundamental geopolitical transformation, marked by increasing security volatility, economic uncertainty, and declining U.S. regional influence.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Americas (See All Global)

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