Global Risk Indexes (04-03-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 97 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Global Economic Fractures Deepen: U.S.-China Economic War, Energy Disruptions, and Market Volatility Reshape Global Trade

The world economy continues to move toward deeper fragmentation as geopolitical rivalries drive economic policies. The escalating U.S.-China trade war, combined with energy security concerns and financial instability, is pushing global markets into a period of prolonged uncertainty.

U.S.-China Economic Confrontation Escalates: Sanctions, Trade Barriers, and Market Turmoil

The Trump administration has announced new financial sanctions on Chinese state-backed technology firms, expanding its economic offensive against Beijing. This move comes alongside tighter restrictions on Chinese AI and semiconductor exports, reinforcing the technology decoupling between the two superpowers.

Beijing has responded with severe restrictions on rare earth exports, targeting industries critical to the U.S. defense and technology sectors. Additionally, China has begun divesting from U.S. Treasury bonds at an accelerated pace, raising concerns about the stability of the U.S. bond market.

The impact on global markets has been immediate. The Chinese yuan has weakened further, while Wall Street has seen heightened volatility as investors adjust to the risk of prolonged trade disruptions.

Energy Market Uncertainty: Middle East and Eastern Europe Supply Disruptions

Global energy markets are facing renewed instability. Brent crude prices have surged past $94 per barrel as the U.S. enforces tougher sanctions on Iranian oil exports, further straining global supply.

Meanwhile, the conflict in Eastern Europe is causing additional disruptions. Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged key Russian energy infrastructure, prompting Moscow to impose new restrictions on energy exports to Europe. This has forced the EU to seek emergency alternatives, including increased imports from North Africa and the U.S.

Adding to market pressures, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies are discussing further production cuts to counteract weakening oil demand in Asia, contributing to price volatility.

Financial Markets in Turmoil: Gold Reaches Record High, Emerging Markets Struggle

Financial markets remain highly volatile as investors react to trade and energy market disruptions. Gold has surged to a record $3,350 per ounce, reflecting growing concerns over inflation, currency devaluation, and financial instability.

The U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen, further pressuring emerging market currencies. The Indian rupee and Brazilian real have suffered steep declines as capital outflows increase.

Meanwhile, Wall Street remains under pressure, with major indices experiencing declines due to rising uncertainty in global trade and investment flows.

Looking Ahead: The New Global Economic Order

The global economy is no longer defined by market-driven efficiency but by strategic rivalries and resource protectionism. Trade, finance, and supply chains are being restructured based on national security imperatives rather than cost optimization.

For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the coming months will demand greater adaptability. Strategic risk management, supply chain diversification, and geopolitical intelligence will be critical for navigating this increasingly fragmented economic landscape.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(04-03-2025)

The global economy remains on edge as deepening trade conflicts, energy market volatility, and financial instability reinforce the trend of economic fragmentation. The U.S.-China economic war is accelerating, with Washington imposing new sanctions and Beijing retaliating with further export controls. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to disrupt global supply chains, fueling inflationary pressures and market uncertainty. Financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility, with gold reaching new highs and emerging markets facing capital outflows. As geopolitical rivalries increasingly dictate economic policies, businesses and investors must prepare for prolonged market instability, resource protectionism, and supply chain realignments.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

Previous Briefings

See all previous briefings