South Sudan Faces Renewed Conflict, DRC Refugee Crisis Deepens, and U.S.-South Africa Relations Fracture
Deadly attack on UN helicopter in South Sudan risks derailing fragile peace process.
A United Nations helicopter evacuating South Sudanese troops came under attack, killing a general and at least 27 soldiers. The attack, which also claimed the life of a UN crew member, follows weeks of heightened tensions between President Salva Kiir’s government and forces aligned with Vice President Riek Machar. The incident is a direct blow to the 2018 peace deal and could justify expanded military operations, further destabilizing the country. The UN has condemned the attack as a possible war crime, increasing pressure on international actors to intervene.
Conflict in the DRC forces over 63,000 refugees into Burundi.
Burundi is struggling to manage an unprecedented influx of refugees fleeing the M23 rebellion in eastern DRC. Overcrowding in emergency camps has led to severe humanitarian conditions, with thousands forced to shelter in open fields. The crisis highlights the broader failure of regional security interventions and could spill over into neighboring countries, increasing regional instability. The UN has called for urgent international assistance as the refugee situation worsens.
U.S. cuts aid to South Africa, exacerbating diplomatic tensions.
President Donald Trump has formally stopped all U.S. federal funding to South Africa, citing opposition to its land policies and its ICJ genocide case against Israel. Additionally, Trump announced a plan to fast-track asylum for white South African farmers, framing the move as a security necessity. The aid suspension, valued at over $323 million annually, threatens critical health and development programs, while the asylum offer adds further strain to U.S.-South Africa relations.
Egypt secures the release of hostages held by Sudan’s RSF.
Nine Egyptian nationals, held for 19 months by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, have been freed and returned home. The release comes amid ongoing accusations that Egypt is supporting Sudan’s army in its war against the RSF, while the RSF continues to claim UAE military backing. The hostage crisis and its resolution underscore the growing foreign involvement in Sudan’s conflict, with regional powers positioning themselves for influence.
South Africa’s power grid faces renewed instability as Eskom resumes blackouts.
Eskom has reintroduced nationwide power cuts following outages at a major nuclear plant and a coal station. The return of load shedding threatens economic recovery and raises concerns over South Africa’s long-term energy security. Despite government reassurances, rolling blackouts remain a key political and economic challenge.
Morocco secures €781 million from France for high-speed rail expansion.
France has provided financing for Morocco’s high-speed rail network ahead of the 2030 World Cup, which Morocco will co-host. The investment strengthens Franco-Moroccan economic ties and aligns with Morocco’s broader infrastructure expansion strategy. However, the reliance on external financing raises long-term debt sustainability concerns.
Mali partially lifts mining permit suspension, signaling resource sector reform.
Mali’s government has announced it will allow renewals and transitions of mining permits, partially reversing a 2022 ban. The move follows the introduction of a controversial new mining code that grants the state greater control over resources. The policy shift could attract investment but also risks deterring foreign firms concerned about regulatory unpredictability.
France hands over military bases to Senegal, marking further regional disengagement.
As part of a broader withdrawal strategy, France has transferred two military facilities to Senegal. The move follows similar withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. France’s diminishing presence in West Africa reflects the region’s shifting geopolitical landscape, with former colonies seeking greater sovereignty.
Strategic Implications: South Sudan’s escalating crisis threatens to reignite widespread conflict, while the DRC’s refugee crisis underscores the failure of regional peacekeeping efforts. The U.S. aid cut to South Africa may weaken bilateral ties and disrupt development initiatives, while Egypt’s intervention in Sudan highlights deepening external influence in African conflicts. Morocco’s rail expansion and Mali’s mining reforms reflect shifting economic priorities, but both carry long-term risks. France’s military disengagement signals a broader reconfiguration of security partnerships across West Africa. These developments demand urgent diplomatic, security, and economic interventions to stabilize the region.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(08-03-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk remains at a critical level due to escalating conflicts, economic instability, and diplomatic tensions. South Sudan faces the potential collapse of its fragile peace process following the deadly attack on a UN evacuation mission. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to unravel as M23 rebels consolidate control, triggering a refugee crisis in Burundi. Sudan’s war sees further external influence with Egypt securing the release of hostages from the RSF, while U.S.-South Africa relations deteriorate over aid cuts and Trump’s controversial asylum offer. Meanwhile, economic shifts continue across the continent, with Morocco securing high-speed rail financing from France, Mali easing mining restrictions, and South Africa’s power grid experiencing renewed instability. The combination of these developments underscores Africa’s deepening political, economic, and security crises, demanding urgent regional and global intervention.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- South Sudan Faces Renewed Conflict, DRC Refugee Crisis Deepens, and U.S.-South Africa Relations Fracture - (08-03-2025)
- South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector - (07-03-2025)
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crises Deepen: DRC Conflict Intensifies, South Sudan Risks Civil War, and Economic Woes Mount - (05-03-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military in Crisis, Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Breakdown, and Economic Strains Deepen - (03-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads - (02-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify - (01-03-2025)
