Global Risk Indexes (08-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 97 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 95 (-1 ▼)
Markets 96 (-2 ▼)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Faces Legal, Economic, and Security Challenges: Taiwan Warns Citizens Abroad, China-Canada Trade War Escalates, and Regional Crises Deepen

The Asia-Pacific is undergoing increasing legal, economic, and security tensions, with Taiwan issuing a travel warning amid China’s crackdown, trade disputes escalating between Beijing and Ottawa, and refugee and political crises deepening across South and Southeast Asia.

Taiwan’s Travel Warning: Rising Risks for Citizens Abroad

Taiwan has issued a travel advisory warning citizens to exercise caution when visiting nations with close ties to China. This follows Beijing’s expanded legal pressure on pro-independence figures, reinforcing concerns over extraterritorial enforcement of Chinese laws. The warning highlights a growing trend of legal and diplomatic coercion, as Beijing seeks to undermine Taiwan’s global standing.

Long-term, this could lead to greater restrictions on Taiwanese professionals, businesspeople, and students in China-friendly nations, as well as increased tensions between Taipei and governments that comply with Beijing’s enforcement demands.

China-Canada Trade War: Beijing Strikes Back

China has imposed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural imports in direct retaliation for Ottawa’s earlier trade restrictions on Chinese goods. This move signals Beijing’s willingness to escalate economic conflicts, particularly as global supply chains remain fragile.

If tensions continue rising, Canada may seek deeper trade diversification, potentially strengthening agricultural exports to alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea, or ASEAN economies. Meanwhile, China’s response suggests a broader willingness to use economic pressure as a geopolitical tool.

Taiwan’s Export Surge: AI and Trade Uncertainty Drive Growth

Taiwan’s exports have surged 31.5%, driven by high demand for AI-related technology and preemptive stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. trade policy shifts. This highlights Taiwan’s critical role in global semiconductor and high-tech supply chains.

While short-term export figures remain strong, future risks include potential U.S. tariff adjustments and increasing pressure from China to limit Taiwan’s role in critical industries.

Bangladesh’s Rohingya Crisis: WFP Aid Cuts Loom

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned of severe funding shortages, forcing aid reductions for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh. The cuts could further destabilize refugee camps, increasing the risk of food insecurity, criminal activity, and extremist recruitment.

Unless new funding sources emerge, the crisis could escalate, placing additional strain on Dhaka’s political and security landscape.

Pakistan’s Afghan Deportation Deadline: Security and Humanitarian Risks

Pakistan has announced a March 31 deadline for undocumented Afghan refugees to leave the country, raising concerns over humanitarian and security consequences. With border tensions already high, forced deportations could lead to retaliatory actions by Afghan militant groups and worsen Pakistan’s security challenges.

Myanmar’s Military Government Sets Election Timeline

The Myanmar junta has announced a December 2025–January 2026 election timeframe, despite ongoing armed resistance and political instability. This move is unlikely to ease tensions, as opposition groups and ethnic militias continue to reject military-led governance.

Unless meaningful political dialogue occurs, the elections may trigger renewed violence and deeper regional instability.

Looking Ahead: Legal Pressures, Trade Shifts, and Regional Stability Concerns

The Asia-Pacific faces a complex mix of legal coercion, economic disputes, and political instability. How governments respond in the coming weeks will determine whether these tensions stabilize or escalate further.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(08-03-2025)

Geopolitical and economic tensions across the Asia-Pacific continue to escalate, with Taiwan issuing a travel warning amid Beijing’s increasing legal pressure on independence supporters. China has expanded its extraterritorial enforcement efforts, raising concerns among Taiwanese citizens abroad. Meanwhile, economic shifts are intensifying, with Taiwan’s exports surging due to AI demand and preemptive trade adjustments, while China-Canada trade tensions escalate as Beijing imposes $2.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs. Bangladesh faces worsening instability, with Rohingya refugee aid running critically low and security forces cracking down on Hizb-ut-Tahrir protesters. Pakistan’s decision to expel undocumented Afghans by March 31 raises humanitarian and security concerns, particularly as border tensions remain high. Sri Lanka has secured a $2.5 billion debt restructuring deal with Japan, signaling progress in post-crisis economic stabilization. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military junta has set a long-delayed election timeline, despite continued armed resistance. Japan and the UK are strengthening coordination on Russia sanctions, reflecting Tokyo’s evolving security posture amid the ongoing Ukraine war. Additionally, Australia is still managing the aftermath of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, with widespread evacuations and infrastructure disruptions. With legal, economic, and security challenges unfolding simultaneously, the region faces heightened risks of political instability, trade realignments, and strategic shifts.

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