Global Risk Indexes (07-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 96 ( —)
Markets 98 ( —)
Mei Ling, Asia Pacific region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Mei Ling

Empowering minds, shaping decisions: Insights from the heart of geopolitics

Asia-Pacific Confronts Security and Economic Shifts: New Zealand Warns of China’s Influence, U.S. Tariff Uncertainty, and Regional Military Realignments

The Asia-Pacific is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition, economic disruptions, and evolving military alliances. As China expands its influence in the Pacific, New Zealand has raised intelligence concerns, while shifting U.S. trade policies add further economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, security partnerships are evolving as the Philippines moves to strengthen military cooperation with Canada.

New Zealand’s Intelligence Warning: China’s Expanding Influence in the Pacific

New Zealand’s intelligence chief has issued a direct warning about China’s growing influence in the Pacific, specifically in the Cook Islands. This statement signals that Wellington is becoming more vocal about Beijing’s regional strategy, aligning itself more closely with U.S. concerns over China’s outreach to smaller island nations.

If China continues expanding its economic and security partnerships in the Pacific, New Zealand and Australia may be pressured to increase their diplomatic and defense engagement in the region to counterbalance Beijing’s presence.

U.S. Tariff Uncertainty: Trade Policies Disrupt North American and Asian Markets

The Trump administration has imposed new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, only to partially suspend them days later. This unpredictability is creating uncertainty in global markets, affecting supply chains and raising concerns among Asian economies reliant on trade stability.

Businesses and governments in the region will need to diversify trade partnerships and strengthen economic resilience to mitigate future disruptions.

South Korea’s Military Training Accident: Domestic and Regional Implications

A military training accident in South Korea has resulted in increased public scrutiny over defense preparedness and safety protocols. The incident, which injured both soldiers and civilians, comes at a time of heightened regional tensions.

If public opposition to military expansion grows, it could impact Seoul’s future defense policy and its cooperation with U.S. and regional allies.

Philippines-Canada Military Pact: Strengthening Defense Partnerships

The Philippines is set to sign a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with Canada, further reinforcing its security ties amid South China Sea tensions. This agreement follows similar defense arrangements with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, reflecting Manila’s strategy to build a network of allied military support.

China is likely to perceive this as another attempt to contain its regional ambitions, which could lead to increased military and diplomatic responses from Beijing.

Thailand’s Uyghur Deportation: Diplomatic Fallout Continues

Thailand continues to face diplomatic criticism over its decision to deport 40 Uyghurs to China, despite international pressure to halt the repatriations. Bangkok has defended its actions, citing legal processes, but the move has strained relations with Western allies.

This controversy may impact Thailand’s ability to balance its diplomatic position between China and the U.S., particularly in trade and security matters.

U.S.-China Maritime Tensions: Potential New Trade Barriers

The U.S. is considering imposing port fees on ships linked to Chinese-built vessels, escalating trade tensions. If implemented, this policy could disrupt global shipping flows and further fragment supply chains.

China may respond with countermeasures, potentially leading to greater economic decoupling between the world’s two largest economies.

Looking Ahead: A Region Facing Economic and Strategic Recalibrations

The Asia-Pacific remains in a state of flux, with evolving trade policies, military partnerships, and regional power dynamics shaping the future landscape. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether these tensions escalate or stabilize.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Asia Pacific
(07-03-2025)

The Asia-Pacific region is facing growing security concerns, economic uncertainty, and shifting diplomatic alliances. New Zealand’s intelligence chief has issued a stark warning about China’s increasing influence in the Pacific, particularly in the Cook Islands, signaling heightened regional competition. The humanitarian crisis for Rohingya refugees in Indonesia is deepening as U.S. funding cuts force the UN migration agency to reduce aid, exacerbating regional migration challenges. In South Korea, public criticism is mounting following a military training accident that left multiple soldiers and civilians injured. Meanwhile, trade policies remain unpredictable, with the Trump administration imposing and partially suspending new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, creating global economic instability. In the Philippines, Manila is set to sign a Visiting Forces Agreement with Canada, reinforcing its security partnerships as tensions with China persist in the South China Sea. Thailand continues to face diplomatic fallout over its deportation of 40 Uyghurs to China, despite international condemnation. The U.S.-China economic rivalry is also expanding into the maritime sector, with Washington considering new port fees on Chinese-linked vessels, potentially disrupting global trade flows. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s interim government is struggling to maintain security and political stability, delaying progress toward new elections. Additionally, Hong Kong’s financial sector remains under pressure as geopolitical risks drive investors to reassess their market strategies. The region remains highly vulnerable to economic fragmentation, security tensions, and diplomatic shifts.

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Developments to Follow for the Asia Pacific (See All Global)

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